Cerence, Inc. (CRNC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.53+0.47%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -49.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and missed its most recent quarter. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CRNC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Cerence Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. The press release, including the financial information contained therein, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and is incorporated herein by reference. Also on August 5, 2026, the Company will use a presentation on its call with investors, discussing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026, and such e…
Why it matters: New fixed license contracts can significantly impact revenue and cash flow. They are crucial for Cerence's growth strategy.
Watch forNew fixed license contracts worth over $10 million have been announced.
Also watch forNo new fixed license contracts announced in the quarter.
Why it matters: Better margins mean improved cost management. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifGAAP gross margin reported between 78% and 80%.
Worry ifGAAP gross margin reported below 75%.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating guidance shows strong demand. This boosts confidence for investors.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue reported at $65 million or higher.
Worry ifQ4 revenue falls below $61 million.
Why it matters: Starting the buyback program shows management's confidence in the stock. It can support share price.
Supportive ifShare buybacks were announced. This shows management's commitment.
Worry ifNo share buybacks were reported. This suggests low confidence or cash flow problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$279 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $668 loss on $10,000 · 6.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,519 loss on $10,000 · 55.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Falling revenue would signal ongoing struggles to meet the full-year target of $305M to $320M.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $64M.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue reported above $64M.
Why it matters: Growth in this area shows strong demand for Cerence's AI solutions.
Supportive ifConnected Services revenue grew more than 20% year over year.
Worry ifConnected Services revenue grew less than 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Successful buybacks can show that management is confident. They can also help share prices.
Supportive ifCerence announces the repurchase of at least $5 million of shares by November 2026.
Worry ifNo shares will be bought back by November 2026.
Why it matters: Stable leadership is important for carrying out plans. Recent exits may change company direction.
Worry ifThere is a new executive hire or a stable leadership team.
Less concerning ifMore leaders are leaving. There are also problems in leadership.
Why it matters: Active buybacks show management's confidence. They can also help the stock price.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks of $10 million or more.
Worry ifNo share repurchases reported within the next quarter.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating EBITDA guidance shows strong efficiency. It shows the ability to make money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is reported at $66 million or more for FY 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is under $60 million. This shows there are problems with operations.
Why it matters: A better gross margin means better cost control. It helps make more money.
Supportive ifGross margin was between 78% and 80%. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifGross margin was below 75%. This indicates possible cost problems.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls, it may hurt Cerence's performance. This could signal a broader slowdown.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median for the last year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.