Cerence, Inc. (CRNC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.03-8.44%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CRNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -49.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and missed its most recent quarter. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers
CRNC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Cerence Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026. The press release, including the financial information contained therein, is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1, and is incorporated herein by reference. Also on August 5, 2026, the Company will use a presentation on its call with investors, discussing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026, and such e…
Why it matters: Connected services grew 20% in Q3. This checks whether growth in this business continues.
Supportive ifThe next results show connected services revenue up more than 20% year over year.
Worry ifThe next results show connected services revenue growth at 20% or less year over year.
Why it matters: The program permits share purchases over 12 months but does not require them. Actual purchases would show it is in use.
Supportive ifA company filing or report confirms at least one share purchase under the $30 million program.
Worry ifA company filing or report says the program bought no shares during the 12-month period.
Why it matters: This tests management's revenue goal. Revenue timing can shift with fixed-license deals.
Supportive ifIn the November 18 results, FY26 revenue is at least $310 million.
Worry ifFY26 revenue is below $310 million, or management reports a cut to its full-year outlook.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $640 loss on $10,000 · 6.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,398 loss on $10,000 · 54.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.