Crocs (CROX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$152.93-4.32%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CROX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CROX — officer change
Dated 2026-06-10
The filing is about the approval of a new equity incentive plan and does not involve any changes in management or executive departures.
Why it matters: The sector read says revenue is shrinking, while recent data hints at a change. Retail sales can help test that shift.
Watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows sales rose from the prior month.
Also watch forThe November 17 retail sales report shows sales fell from the prior month.
Why it matters: Crocs raised its full-year revenue outlook for a third time. Results below 3% would break that target.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 revenue grows about 3% year over year, matching the latest outlook.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 revenue grows less than 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Q3 adjusted operating margin rose to 22.3%. A sharp Q4 drop would weaken the margin improvement story.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted operating margin is below 20.5%, the level in the Q3 outlook.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted operating margin is at least 20.5%.
Why it matters: North America sales fell 2.1% in Q3 while international sales grew 11.8%. A return to growth would show wider brand strength.
Watch forCrocs Brand North America revenue grows year over year in the next reported quarter.
Also watch forCrocs Brand North America revenue falls year over year again.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$159 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $389 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,425 loss on $10,000 · 24.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Crocs Brand sales rose 4.4% in Q3. Meeting the higher Q4 range would show that growth is picking up.
Supportive ifQ4 Crocs Brand revenue grows 6% to 8% year over year, as stated in the Q3 outlook.
Worry ifQ4 Crocs Brand revenue grows less than 6% year over year.
Why it matters: HEYDUDE returned to growth in Q3 after declines earlier in 2026. Q4 results can test if that change lasts.
Supportive ifQ4 HEYDUDE revenue grows 10% to 12% year over year, as stated in the Q3 outlook.
Worry ifQ4 HEYDUDE revenue grows less than 10% year over year or falls year over year.