Crocs (CROX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$117.53+1.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CROX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 28.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
CROX — officer change
Dated 2026-06-10
The filing is about the approval of a new equity incentive plan and does not involve any changes in management or executive departures.
Why it matters: More buybacks would show strong belief in the company's future and spending plans.
Supportive ifThey announced more share repurchases over $500 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements or a cut in repurchase plans.
Why it matters: Growth in the Crocs Brand signals strong consumer demand and effective brand strategy.
Supportive ifCrocs Brand revenue grows more than 1% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifCrocs Brand revenue declines or grows less than 1% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: A decline in revenues would show ongoing challenges in the market. It may affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenues down more than 5.5% compared to Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenues decline less than 5.5% or grow compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Cost savings can help make more money and improve cash flow.
Supportive ifManagement says $100 million in cost savings plans are on track.
Worry ifManagement says there are problems reaching the $100 million cost savings goal.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $407 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,425 loss on $10,000 · 24.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A stable or better margin shows good cost control and profit.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating margin is more than 21.5% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted operating margin is less than 21.5% in Q3.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger financial health and smoother operations.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations rises a lot compared to earlier quarters.
Worry ifCash flow from operations stays the same or drops compared to earlier quarters.
Why it matters: Trends in HEYDUDE revenue indicate brand health and market acceptance.
Watch forHEYDUDE Brand revenue stabilizes or grows compared to Q3 2025.
Also watch forHEYDUDE Brand revenue declines more than 3% compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: A steady gross margin shows good cost control. It also shows strong pricing power.
Supportive ifGross margin for Q2 2026 reported above 56%.
Worry ifGross margin for Q2 2026 reported below 56%.
Why it matters: More buybacks show strong cash flow. They also show a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifCompany announces share buybacks over $500 million in Q3.
Worry ifNo big share buybacks announced in Q3.