Reading CROX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CROX free→Reading CROX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CROX free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryFootwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the sector backdrop is a headwind, indicating challenges in the broader market. Peer multiples imply a price about 35% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like NKE and DECK. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $124.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $125 CROX trades at 10× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $191 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $81–$150. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 35% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted -6.72x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to long-term interest rates, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated stable grew net income 55% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=483).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $4.31 → $4.32 (+0.2% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 14 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 38% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 25.0% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$184.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$405.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,254.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would show ongoing challenges in revenue growth. This is key for Crocs' long-term strategy.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Focus on revenue growth
Stock rally indicates strong revenue growth potential.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 9, 2026, Crocs, Inc. (the “Company”) held its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders (the “Annual Meeting”) as a virtual meeting online live via audio webcast, at which the Company’s stockholders approved the Company’s 2026 Equity Incentive Plan (the “Plan”). The Plan provides for the grant of incentive and non-qualified stock options, stock a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$81.00 – $150.00 (median $110.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Footwear.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CROX Crocs | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
DECK Deckers Brands | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | fair | moderate |
SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
WWW Wolverine World Wide, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | fair | elevated |
WEYS Weyco Group, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 22.5% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve revenue growth despite challenging market conditions.
Management is focused on enhancing operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Management aims to improve cash flow from operations through better working capital management.
Why it matters: A decline in HEYDUDE revenue guidance would signal ongoing challenges in that brand.
Confirms:HEYDUDE brand revenue guidance for Q2 down more than 14% year over year.
Disproves:HEYDUDE brand revenue guidance for Q2 shows a decline of less than 12% year over year.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow would show better operational efficiency. This is vital for Crocs' growth plans.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations reported as positive in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better cash flow is important for funding growth and managing debt.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by more than 10% year over year.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations decreases or remains flat year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows improved cost management. This is key for Crocs' finances.
Confirms:Operating income rose from $200.84M in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating income decreases or stays below $200.84M in Q2 2026.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026 , Crocs, Inc. issued a press release reporting its results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report.