Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Carlisle Companies (CSL)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$398.82+2.97%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
23.98 → 23.88 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CSL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand adjusted EBITDA margin by about 50 basis points in 2026 | Carlisle Companies grows sales about 4% yearly and improves profit margins by 0.5 points. | Under Pressure | Adjusted EBITDA margin fails to expand by at least 30 basis points in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CSL is a large company with a multi-year growth plan, making this a long-term execution thesis rather than a turnaround. The thesis is currently intact, with high confidence in the evidence, though delivery on growth and margins is mixed.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is small, suggesting the market’s assumptions are close to the evidence snapshot’s baseline. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, meaning weak execution is not combined with a broader set of pressures in the assessment.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the latest quarter included an earnings miss and lower sequential revenue and adjusted EBITDA margin. Management remains committed to Vision 2030 and is on track with its share repurchase plan, while margin expansion progress is mixed and the next-quarter outlook calls for flat margin year over year.
Over the near term, a reversal of the recently raised guidance would damage management credibility, while the current risk assessment still flags a run of earnings misses. Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on progress with Vision 2030 and margins; sector signals from JCI, MAS, and WMS could also strengthen or weaken the Industrials backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CSL’s strong recent performance and peer-relative valuation support an intact long-term thesis, but execution on growth and margins remains uneven. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company returns capital steadily, repurchasing $1 billion in shares in 2026. |
| Intact |
| Share repurchases fall below $750 million in 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain revenue growth near 4% annually | A primary condition in Carlisle Companies's published investment case. The stated target is >=4% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: 8.65% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=4% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 20268.649491 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$23.29 → $23.88 · observed estimates
$5.38B → $5.58B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $23.29 | $5,381,560,220 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $23.29 | $5,381,560,220 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $23.27 | $5,389,731,092 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $23.29 | $5,381,560,220 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $23.29 | $5,381,560,220 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $23.27 | $5,389,731,092 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $23.60 | $5,468,428,003 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $23.92 | $5,509,606,860 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $23.92 | $5,509,606,860 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $24.08 | $5,527,051,300 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $24.08 | $5,527,051,300 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $23.84 | $5,494,455,275 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $24.06 | $5,527,000,892 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $24.06 | $5,527,000,892 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $24.05 | $5,531,457,168 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $24.05 | $5,531,457,168 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $24.05 | $5,531,457,168 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $24.06 | $5,534,138,721 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $24.06 | $5,534,111,451 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $23.98 | $5,529,250,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $23.91 | $5,524,850,598 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $23.91 | $5,524,850,598 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $23.91 | $5,524,850,598 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $23.91 | $5,521,850,598 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $23.91 | $5,521,850,598 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $23.97 | $5,509,851,998 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $24.00 | $5,518,241,998 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $24.00 | $5,518,241,998 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $24.00 | $5,518,241,998 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $24.00 | $5,518,241,998 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $23.88 | $5,518,241,998 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $23.88 | $5,518,241,998 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $23.88 | $5,518,241,998 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $23.88 | $5,518,241,998 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $23.88 | $5,517,641,998 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $23.76 | $5,519,038,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $23.76 | $5,519,038,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $23.76 | $5,519,038,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $23.76 | $5,519,038,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $23.76 | $5,519,038,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $23.76 | $5,519,038,180 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $23.80 | $5,547,199,052 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $23.83 | $5,569,625,735 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $23.88 | $5,582,516,645 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $23.88 | $5,582,516,645 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $23.88 | $5,582,516,645 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $23.88 | $5,582,516,645 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $23.88 | $5,582,516,645 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.