Carlisle Companies (CSL)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$352.14+2.06%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CSL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CSL — President transition
Dated 2026-04-30
Executive Vice President, Government Relations & Secretary — Scott C. Selbach: Scott C. Selbach retired after more than 35 years of service.
Why it matters: Successful new products are key to driving growth and supporting the Vision 2030 strategy.
Supportive ifManagement announces the launch of all planned new products for 2026 by year-end.
Worry ifManagement reports delays in the launch of new products planned for 2026.
Why it matters: If margins stay flat or drop, costs will rise. This will limit profit growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin remains at 26.2% or lower in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin goes above 26.2% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Successful product launches help growth. They also boost innovation and market position.
Supportive ifAt least two new products launched by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifFewer than two new products launched by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows recovery from recent market and weather problems.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 0% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is still negative compared to last year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$162 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $377 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,517 loss on $10,000 · 25.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings will show if Carlisle's revenue growth is improving or not. This is key for investors.
Watch forQ2 revenue grew more than 8% from last year. This shows a recovery.
Also watch forQ2 revenue growth falls below 5% year over year, signaling continued weakness.
Why it matters: Geopolitical issues can change demand in construction markets. This affects revenue growth.
Worry ifNo big drop in construction work has been seen from global tensions.
Less concerning ifA big drop in construction work is tied to global tensions.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector shows renewed growth, it could lift Carlisle's performance. This would impact investor sentiment.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported above 7% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Successful share buybacks show good capital use. They also show confidence in the company's future.
Supportive ifCarlisle plans share buybacks of at least $500 million by Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases total less than $250 million by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: New product launches help growth and support the Vision 2030 strategy.
Supportive ifAt least three new products launched and reported as successful in Q3.
Worry ifNo new products launched or negative feedback on launched products.
Why it matters: Revenue growth above 5% shows the company is doing well and there is market demand.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grew by more than 5% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue grew by less than 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Meeting the share repurchase target shows good use of capital and confidence in the business.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases reach or exceed $1.2 billion by year-end 2026.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases fall below $1.2 billion by year-end 2026.