Carlisle Companies (CSL)
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$398.82+2.97%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsConstruction MaterialsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CSL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CSL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-28
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 28, 2026, Carlisle Companies Incorporated (the “Company”) issued a press release regarding the Company’s financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished herewith and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of…
Why it matters: Carlisle set a high-single-digit growth goal for Q4. A weaker result would break that goal after Q3 revenue rose 9%.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth is below 7% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 revenue grows 7% or more year over year.
Why it matters: Both segments grew in Q3, but Carlisle still reported soft new construction markets. The industrial sector also shows a headwind and slowing growth.
Worry ifCCM and CWT both report lower demand for new construction than in Q3. Revenue is also down year over year.
Less concerning ifCCM and CWT revenue both grow year over year while new construction demand stays soft or improves.
Why it matters: Higher raw material and freight costs cut Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin by 210 basis points. Carlisle says price gains will take time to catch up.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA margin is below its level from Q4 2025.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted EBITDA margin matches or exceeds its level from Q4 2025.
Why it matters: Nine of 12 planned products were in the market by Q3. The final three would show Carlisle met its launch plan.
Supportive ifCarlisle confirms that all 12 products planned for 2026 are on the market by year-end.
Worry ifCarlisle reports fewer than 12 planned products on the market by year-end.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $360 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,478 loss on $10,000 · 24.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Carlisle bought back $850 million of shares through Q3 and said it remains on track. The full-year total will show whether it met its stated goal.
Supportive ifCarlisle reports at least $1.2 billion in share buybacks for 2026.
Worry ifCarlisle reports less than $1.2 billion in share buybacks for 2026.