CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$308.46+0.95%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - SpecialtiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CSW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 21.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 0 industry peers
CSW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-01-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On January 29, 2026, CSW Industrials, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal third quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Sec…
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted EBITDA shows the company is running well and making money. This is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA growth will be more than 18.3% in fiscal 2027.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is below 18.3% in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: A drop in organic growth signals potential weakness in demand or market share.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth reported below 5% for Q2 fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifOrganic revenue growth reported at or above 5% for Q2 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: A strong revenue growth signal would show CSW is overcoming sector headwinds. It could indicate a positive shift in demand.
Supportive ifQ4 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ4 revenue growth stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A new acquisition shows a commitment to growth. This comes from smart investments.
Supportive ifThere is an announcement of a new acquisition worth over $100 million.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced within the next quarter.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$164 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $438 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,456 loss on $10,000 · 24.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better margins mean the company is more efficient. It also shows good purchase integration.
Supportive ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin is over 27% in the next report.
Worry ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 25% in the next report.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if CSW's growth strategy is working. Strong results could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ1 2027 earnings report shows revenue growth above 20% year over year.
Worry ifQ1 2027 earnings report shows revenue growth below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow may show problems in making money.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $70 million for Q2 fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations reported at or above $70 million for Q2 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows the company is doing well. Negative cash flow can worry investors.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in the next quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Closing the MARS Parts deal will expand CSW's HVAC/R product offerings and drive growth.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes successfully. The expected EBITDA margin run rate is at least 30%.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not close. This is due to regulatory issues or other problems.
Why it matters: A higher leverage ratio could indicate financial strain and affect growth plans.
Worry ifNet leverage ratio reported above 3x at the end of Q2 fiscal 2027.
Less concerning ifNet leverage ratio reported at or below 3x at the end of Q2 fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Closing this deal will show CSW's commitment to expanding its HVAC/R product offerings.
Supportive ifThe acquisition of MARS Parts is completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe acquisition of MARS Parts faces delays beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Acquisitions could drive growth; failure to do so may raise concerns about integration.
Watch forQ3 revenue growth is due to recent acquisitions that are more than 20%.
Also watch forQ3 revenue growth is due to recent acquisitions that are less than 10%.
Why it matters: This growth shows if CSW can maintain momentum after a strong Q1. It impacts future earnings potential.
Supportive ifThe Contractor Solutions segment's revenue grew more than 5.9% from last year.
Worry ifThe Contractor Solutions segment's revenue growth is below 5.0% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Higher adjusted EBITDA shows good cost management and revenue growth. This helps financial health.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA grows more than 47.8% year over year.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA growth is less than 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show management's trust in the stock. This can help the share price.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $18 million in Q2.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q2.
Why it matters: Keeping this ratio shows CSW can manage debt while growing. It helps financial stability.
Watch forNet leverage ratio remains between 1x and 3x.
Also watch forNet leverage ratio exceeds 3x.