CSX Corporation (CSX)
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$48.51-0.61%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $48.51. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $49 CSX trades at 29× p/e, below its 31× p/e peer median, but our blended $39 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $32–$55. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $55 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$32.00 – $55.00 (median $47.00) · 18 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 54% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 15.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.47/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $47.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $16.70 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $55.08 | 19.0 | 3.41 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $17.17 | 28.1 | 0.61 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $53.13 | 31.3 | 1.70 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $26.86 | 3.5 | 7.60 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $74.35 | 43.7 | 1.70 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $11.78 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $40.24 | 23.7 | 1.70 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $53.88 | 31.3 | 1.72 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $5.88 | 28.1 | 0.21 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $75.51 | 31.3 | 2.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $32.60 | 3.5 | 9.22 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $105.68 | 43.7 | 2.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $57.20 | 23.7 | 2.42 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $85.69 | 31.3 | 2.74 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $36.99 | 3.5 | 10.47 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $119.92 | 43.7 | 2.74 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $64.91 | 23.7 | 2.74 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.