CSX Corporation (CSX)
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$49.41+0.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CSX
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-06. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $49 CSX trades at 27× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median — but our blended $39 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $32–$60. The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $53.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $7.90 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| graham number | 12M | $17.52 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $46.66 | 15.4 | 3.66 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$32.00 – $60.00 (median $53.00) · 18 analysts · as of 2026-07-31
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 66% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 14.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $1.40/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $24.30 |
| 22.2 |
| 1.09 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $42.38 | 19.3 | 2.19 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $12.69 | 1.6 | 7.81 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $61.37 | 34.1 | 1.80 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $12.30 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $48.95 | 27.2 | 1.80 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $42.64 | 24.0 | 1.78 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $15.26 | 22.2 | 0.69 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $48.96 | 19.3 | 2.53 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $15.84 | 1.6 | 9.74 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $93.33 | 34.1 | 2.74 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $74.45 | 27.2 | 2.74 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $11.19 | 22.2 | 0.50 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $56.57 | 19.3 | 2.93 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $18.30 | 1.6 | 11.26 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $123.43 | 34.1 | 3.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $98.45 | 27.2 | 3.62 | Analyst | medium |