CSX Corporation (CSX)
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$49.41+0.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CSX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 18.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers
CSX — officer change
Dated 2026-05-14
Executive Vice President and Chief Digital & Technology Officer — Stephen Fortune: Stephen Fortune separated from employment as Executive Vice President and Chief Digital & Technology Officer.
Why it matters: Lower expenses are important for CSX's profits. A good trend can help investors feel better.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 expenses decrease by at least 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifExpenses increase or remain flat compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results show how much money the company makes and how it controls costs. This helps us understand how well the company is doing.
Watch forQ2 earnings show revenue growth above 3% year-over-year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks show management's confidence. They can help support share prices.
Supportive ifThere will be share buybacks or announcements in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share buybacks or announcements in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Management's guidance on volume growth shows they believe in the market. It also shows how they work.
Supportive ifManagement raises the full-year volume growth target to over 3% from last year.
Worry ifManagement lowers the volume growth target to under 2% from last year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$73 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $207 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,158 loss on $10,000 · 11.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sustained volume growth is key for CSX's revenue and profitability. It shows strong demand.
Supportive ifQ3 volume growth exceeds 6% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 volume growth is less than or equal to 6% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The new $5 billion share buyback could signal confidence in future cash flow and support stock price.
Supportive ifCSX announces completion of at least $1 billion in share repurchases by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo significant share repurchases occur by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A margin above 38% shows CSX is keeping costs down.
Supportive ifOperating margin was above 38% in Q3.
Worry ifOperating margin was below 35% in Q3.
Why it matters: News about share buybacks shows that management trusts the company's value.
Watch forNew share repurchases are announced or the current program is sped up.
Also watch forNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program.