Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CSX Corporation (CSX)
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.83-2.34%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.28 → 2.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CSX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share buybacks of $5 billion authorized in 2026 | A supporting condition in CSX Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=5 billion USD buyback authorization. | Intact | buyback program is canceled or significantly reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CSX is a large rail operator with a multi-year thesis based on service execution, profitable volume growth, and cost control. Recent financial performance is strong and the thesis is intact, though management and earnings quality are rated neutral.
Valuation is tagged as stretched, and CSX carries a 21% premium versus peers. Expectations appear broadly aligned with the evidence, but valuation has risen sharply in recent months; the snapshot does not give enough detail to specify what earnings assumptions are embedded.
Near-term results show momentum: revenue and volume increased, and the latest reported operating margin improved year over year. Management’s execution and growth priorities appear on track, while cost control remains a watch item; the sector backdrop is a headwind, and the estimated near-term miss risk is low.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on CSX sustaining service execution, volume growth, and operating performance without cutting guidance. Results from sector bellwethers could either support the industrial backdrop or weaken it; evidence on these forward scenarios is limited.
For the 1-to-3-year view, CSX has strong recent fundamentals and an intact thesis, but stretched valuation and sector conditions leave less room for execution to weaken. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Analysts expect earnings per share to rise to $1.92 in 2026. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS guidance falls below $1.54 for 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Expenses near $2.23 billion in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in CSX Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is <=2.23 billion USD. | Intact | expenses rise above $2.23 billion in any quarter after Q1 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document Exhibit 99.1 CSX Corp. Announces Third Quarter 2026 Results • Record quarterly revenue of $4.02 billion, up 12% year-over-year; diluted EPS of $0.57, up 54% • Operating income of $1.57 billion, up 44%; operating margin expanded 880 bps to 39.1% • Total volume up 5%, with intermodal volume increasing by 7% JACKSONVILLE, Fla.” ““CSX performed well this quarter by providing reliable and efficient service to our customers through changing market conditions, while improving our expense profile,” said Steve Angel, president and chief executive officer.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue growth near 6.5% per year | A supporting condition in CSX Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.5% YoY. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 6.5% year over year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.22 → $2.34 · observed estimates
$15.73B → $16.29B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.22 | $15,734,361,130 | 25 / 20 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.26 | $15,887,248,020 | 25 / 21 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.26 | $15,887,248,020 | 25 / 21 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.26 | $15,901,390,880 | 25 / 21 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.26 | $15,901,390,880 | 25 / 21 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.27 | $15,919,304,524 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.27 | $15,919,304,524 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.26 | $15,901,390,880 | 25 / 21 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.27 | $15,919,304,524 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.26 | $15,901,390,880 | 25 / 21 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.27 | $15,952,145,441 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.27 | $15,952,145,441 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.27 | $15,901,390,880 | 25 / 21 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.27 | $15,901,390,880 | 25 / 21 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.27 | $15,952,145,441 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.27 | $15,941,620,330 | 25 / 21 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.27 | $15,941,620,330 | 25 / 21 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.27 | $15,952,145,441 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.27 | $15,941,620,330 | 25 / 21 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.27 | $15,952,145,441 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.27 | $15,952,145,441 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.27 | $15,952,145,441 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.27 | $15,952,145,441 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.27 | $15,952,145,441 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.27 | $15,952,145,441 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.27 | $15,952,145,441 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.27 | $15,952,145,441 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.28 | $15,961,544,761 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.28 | $15,961,459,751 | 16 / 16 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.28 | $15,961,459,751 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.28 | $15,961,459,751 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.28 | $15,961,459,751 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.28 | $15,961,459,751 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.28 | $15,961,459,751 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.28 | $15,959,506,495 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.28 | $15,959,506,495 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.28 | $15,959,506,495 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.28 | $15,973,514,291 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.28 | $15,973,514,291 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.28 | $15,973,514,291 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.28 | $15,973,514,291 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.28 | $15,974,214,291 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.28 | $15,973,984,291 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.28 | $15,973,984,291 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.28 | $15,973,984,291 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.28 | $15,973,984,291 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.28 | $15,973,984,291 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.28 | $15,973,984,291 | 17 / 16 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.28 | $15,986,338,790 | 14 / 16 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.28 | $15,993,911,622 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.28 | $15,994,611,622 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.28 | $16,002,611,622 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.28 | $16,002,611,622 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.28 | $16,012,884,847 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.28 | $16,029,834,847 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.29 | $16,050,280,736 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.29 | $16,060,213,390 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.29 | $16,060,213,390 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.29 | $16,060,213,390 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.29 | $16,060,213,390 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.29 | $16,072,413,390 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.29 | $16,072,463,390 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.29 | $16,072,463,390 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.29 | $16,103,451,690 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.29 | $16,103,451,690 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.29 | $16,103,451,690 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.29 | $16,103,451,690 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.29 | $16,103,451,690 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.29 | $16,125,903,730 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.30 | $16,179,656,811 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.33 | $16,256,564,848 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.34 | $16,269,678,592 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.34 | $16,269,678,592 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.34 | $16,269,678,592 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.34 | $16,269,678,592 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.34 | $16,289,750,137 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.34 | $16,289,750,137 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.34 | $16,289,750,137 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.34 | $16,289,735,952 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.34 | $16,289,735,952 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.34 | $16,289,735,952 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.34 | $16,289,735,952 | 13 / 16 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.34 | $16,289,735,952 | 13 / 16 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.