Cintas (CTAS)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$200.47-0.29%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTAS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 35.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 26.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers
CTAS — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-03
President and COO — Jim Rozakis: Jim Rozakis was promoted to President and COO, while Todd Schneider will remain as CEO.
Why it matters: A big drop in operating income margin may show problems for Cintas.
Worry ifOperating income margin falls below 23.0% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifOperating income margin stays above 23.2% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: These cost savings are important for profits after the deal.
Supportive ifCintas reports at least $375 million in cost savings within four years.
Worry ifCintas does not achieve significant savings and reports lower cost cuts.
Why it matters: Higher revenue guidance would reflect strong demand and growth momentum for Cintas.
Supportive ifCintas raises its revenue guidance above $11.24 billion for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifRevenue guidance remains at or below $11.21 billion.
Why it matters: Closing the UniFirst deal is important. It will help Cintas grow its services and reach.
Supportive ifThe deal will close in the second half of 2026. This is if there are no delays.
Worry ifThe deal may face big regulatory problems. It could also be delayed past 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $206 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,025 loss on $10,000 · 20.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management raised EPS guidance. This shows strong earnings potential. Confirmation would show continued financial health.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 adjusted EPS lands between $5.36 and $5.50.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance is cut below $5.36.
Why it matters: A lower tax rate could boost net income and EPS, impacting investor sentiment.
Supportive ifEffective tax rate drops below 20.0% for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifEffective tax rate rises above 20.0% for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Raising EPS guidance shows better profits and more trust from investors.
Supportive ifCintas says it will increase EPS guidance above current estimates.
Worry ifCintas keeps or lowers its EPS guidance.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show revenue growth and profit margins, which are important.
Watch forQ3 revenue growth exceeds 8% year over year.
Also watch forQ3 revenue growth falls below 7% year over year.
Why it matters: Confirming the revenue guidance of $12.10 to $12.25 billion signals strong growth momentum.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 revenue guidance is confirmed or raised during the next earnings call.
Worry ifRevenue guidance is lowered or not confirmed during the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Confirming EPS guidance of $5.36 to $5.50 shows that profits and growth will continue.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 EPS guidance is confirmed or raised during the next earnings call.
Worry ifEPS guidance is lowered or not confirmed during the next earnings call.