Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.16-1.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.90 → 0.87 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CTO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Investment guidance raised to $175M-$250M in 2026 | The company has a positive earnings trend and raised 2026 investment guidance to $175M-$250M. | Intact | Investment guidance falls below $175 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CTO is a real estate recovery and growth thesis, supported by acquisitions, structured investments, and leasing. The thesis has shifted from fragile to robust as recent performance improved, though its current state remains watch and confidence is medium.
Valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to CTO being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.6 premium to peers; the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot does not define its scale, so the degree of embedded expectations is unclear. Priced-in fragility is low, with no fragility gates triggered.
Near term, recent results are strong: CTO reported an earnings beat on October 27, and core FFO per share was higher year over year in Q3, though nearly flat from Q2. Investment execution is on track, while leasing delivery is mixed as shopping center same-property NOI growth slowed in Q3 despite higher occupancy. Guidance was recently raised, making any reversal a meaningful credibility risk.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis hinges on CTO sustaining investment returns and translating leasing activity into earnings growth. Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate, while cracks at sector peers could remove that tailwind. A guidance cut after the recent increase would weaken confidence in management execution.
CTO’s operating recovery and investment progress strengthen the long-term thesis, but expensive overall valuation, mixed leasing trends, and guidance credibility remain important constraints. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Consistent earnings beats show strong management execution. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $0.45 in FY26 or consistent misses occur |
Diluted EPS: $-0.19 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.45 in FY26 with positive revisions. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 27, 2026-0.19 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to at least $212.5M in 2026 | A primary condition in CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $212.5 million. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below ~$175 million in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.57 → $0.87 · observed estimates
$0.18B → $0.20B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.57 | $178,078,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.57 | $178,078,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.57 | $178,078,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.57 | $178,078,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.57 | $178,078,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.57 | $178,078,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.57 | $178,078,750 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.25 | $186,131,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.54 | $186,131,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.43 | $186,131,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.43 | $186,131,250 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.54 | $186,131,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.54 | $186,131,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.62 | $189,369,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.90 | $189,369,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.62 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.62 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.62 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.62 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.62 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.62 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.90 | $189,369,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.90 | $189,369,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.90 | $189,369,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.90 | $189,369,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.90 | $189,369,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.90 | $189,369,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.90 | $194,131,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.90 | $196,538,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.88 | $198,913,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.88 | $198,913,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.88 | $198,913,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.88 | $198,913,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.87 | $202,933,750 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.87 | $202,933,750 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.