CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.16-1.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 16.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 45.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CTO — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-30
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed by CTO Realty Growth, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the ”Company”), the Company and certain subsidiaries of the Company previously entered into a Credit Agreement, dated as of September 30, 2024, with KeyBank National Association, as administrative agent (“KeyBank”), and certain other lenders named therein (as amended prior to September 29, 2026, the “Original KeyBank Credit Agreement”). On September 29, 2026, the Company and…
Why it matters: CTO raised its 2026 Core FFO range to $2.11–$2.14. Reaching the low end would support its earnings growth plan.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 Core FFO per share is at least $2.11, within or above the raised range.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 Core FFO per share is below $2.11, or CTO cuts its range before year-end.
Why it matters: CTO put $32 million into a 10-center joint venture at a 17% initial yield, including 7% paid in kind. Missed payments would weaken the return from this investment.
Worry ifCTO reports cash payments at the stated rate and accrues the 7% paid-in-kind interest as planned.
Less concerning ifCTO reports a missed cash payment, a reduced stated yield, or a loan loss tied to the investment.
Why it matters: The 2032 term loan's fixed rate is set to rise from 3.4% to about 5.3% in February 2027. Higher interest costs can weigh on earnings.
Worry ifA company filing shows the 2032 term loan rate rising to about 5.3% in February 2027. Later reports show higher interest expense.
Less concerning ifCTO reports that swaps keep the rate below about 5.3% after February 2027, or that the reset date or terms changed.
Why it matters: The sale would clear the last large vacant anchor space at Carolina Pavilion. A missed close would leave the space unresolved.
Supportive ifCTO reports that the sale closed, or records the sale of the 76,500-square-foot space.
Worry ifCTO reports that the sale did not close, the contract ended, or the closing moved beyond the stated late-Q4 window.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$71 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $191 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,553 loss on $10,000 · 15.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: NOI growth fell to 3.8% in Q3 from 10.1% in Q2. A stronger next quarter would show that rent growth is holding up.
Watch forThe next report shows shopping center same-property NOI growth above 3.8% year over year.
Also watch forThe next report shows shopping center same-property NOI growth at 3.8% or less year over year.
Why it matters: Zona Rosa was 67% leased when CTO bought it. More leased space could add rent and lift total portfolio occupancy.
Supportive ifA later company report shows Zona Rosa is over 67% leased. It names new tenants or says they signed.
Worry ifZona Rosa remains at or below 67% leased, or CTO reports new vacancies at the center.