CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO)
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$21.49+0.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -18.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers
CTO — credit agreement
Dated 2025-09-25
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. As previously disclosed by CTO Realty Growth, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the ”Company”), in its Current Report on Form 8-K filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on September 30, 2024, the Company and certain subsidiaries of the Company entered into a Credit Agreement, as amended by the First Amendment to Credit Agreement and Joinder, dated as of December 20, 2024 (as so amended, the “Existing Credit Agreement”) for a…
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows the company is growing. It shows that its strategies work.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for CTO Realty and its peers. This could help improve the valuation outlook.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the real estate sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The real estate sector is maturing, and revenue growth is slowing. This trend affects CTO's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth speeds up to more than 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth slows down to less than 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher investment guidance shows strong growth and confidence in the market. This can help investors.
Supportive ifInvestment guidance is now above $250 million.
Worry ifInvestment guidance is lowered or stays below $175 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$68 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $163 loss on $10,000 · 1.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,039 loss on $10,000 · 10.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the positive growth trend continues. Investors look for signs of strong performance.
Supportive ifCore FFO per share exceeds the guidance range of $2.06 to $2.11.
Worry ifCore FFO per share falls below the guidance range.
Why it matters: Keeping guidance above $300 million shows confidence in growth and spending.
Supportive ifManagement says they expect to invest between $300 million and $400 million in 2026.
Worry ifInvestment guidance is lowered to below $300 million for 2026.
Why it matters: This growth shows how well the company is managing its properties. A strong NOI growth indicates good health in the portfolio.
Supportive ifQ3 same-property NOI growth above 6% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 same-property NOI growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Core FFO growth reflects the company's profitability. It shows how well the company is generating cash.
Supportive ifCore FFO per diluted share exceeds $0.53 in Q3.
Worry ifCore FFO per diluted share falls below $0.52 in Q3.