CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE, INC. (CTOS)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.13-4.61%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTOS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CTOS — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-26
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 26, 2026, Custom Truck One Source, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall be deemed "furnished" and not "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange…
Why it matters: CTOS raised its SER revenue outlook on strong T&D demand. Meeting it would back the rental growth story.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 SER revenue is at least $870 million, within the raised $870 million to $890 million range.
Worry ifFull-year SER revenue is below $870 million, missing the raised range floor.
Why it matters: CTOS raised fleet spending, leaving its 2026 cash outlook only slightly positive. Cash below zero would weaken its deleveraging effort.
Worry ifCTOS reports negative 2026 levered free cash flow.
Less concerning ifCTOS reports positive 2026 levered free cash flow, as guided.
Why it matters: Leverage fell to 3.70x in Q3. A year-end level below 4.0x would show that debt keeps falling as CTOS invests in its rental fleet.
Supportive ifCTOS reports net leverage below 4.0x at year-end 2026.
Worry ifCTOS reports net leverage at or above 4.0x at year-end 2026.
Why it matters: More than $20 million of STEM deliveries moved from Q3 to Q4. Shipping them would support near-term sales.
Supportive ifQ4 results show at least $20 million of the third-party STEM deliveries shifted from Q3 were shipped.
Worry ifIn Q4, less than $20 million of those shifted deliveries ship. Or the company says they were delayed again.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$168 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $480 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,640 loss on $10,000 · 26.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Rental growth has come with high fleet use. A clear drop in utilization would weaken the case for added rental fleet spending.
Worry ifFleet use falls below 79.3%, its Q3 2025 level, in a reported 2027 quarter.
Less concerning ifFleet utilization stays at or above 81.5% in a reported 2027 quarter.