CUSTOM TRUCK ONE SOURCE, INC. (CTOS)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.19+2.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CTOS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
CTOS — Principal Accounting Officer transition
Dated 2025-12-23
Chief Accounting Officer — R. Todd Barrett: Mr. Barrett resigned as the Chief Accounting Officer of the Company.
Why it matters: A positive trend is key for investor trust and long-term growth.
Supportive ifNet income turns positive in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifNet income remains negative or worsens in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in net income would help keep earnings growing.
Supportive ifNet income reported above $0 in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet income remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is slowing down. If growth re-accelerates, it could benefit Custom Truck One Source.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is picking up again and heading back to past highs.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is slowing down or staying the same.
Why it matters: Sustained revenue growth supports management's goal for 2026. It shows strong market demand.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 8% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 8% year-over-year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$143 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $488 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,590 loss on $10,000 · 25.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: High utilization rates show strong demand for rentals. They also show good efficiency.
Supportive ifRental fleet use is over 80%.
Worry ifRental fleet use drops below 80%.
Why it matters: Higher Adjusted EBITDA shows strong performance. It also helps financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA grew more than 5% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA grew less than 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Changes in guidance can show shifts in profit. This affects how investors feel.
Watch forAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now more than $455 million.
Also watch forAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now less than $437.5 million.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forThe earnings report shows smaller losses or a return to making money.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows more losses or a worse financial situation.
Why it matters: An increase in leverage could signal financial strain and impact growth plans.
Worry ifNet leverage ratio rises above 4.0x.
Less concerning ifNet leverage ratio stays below 4.0x.