Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CuriosityStream, Inc. (CURI)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.52-5.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesBroadcastingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.25 → 0.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CURI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow about $7.5 million in first half 2026 | Free cash flow is expected around $7.5 million in mid-2026. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $6 million in first half 2026 | Free cash flow: $-4.16M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$7.5 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026-4,160,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and execution story, not yet a proven durable compounder, because the business is loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent results and guidance supporting progress, but confidence in that view is medium.
CURI is valued at a premium to peers, and the valuation has risen recently. The expectations gap suggests expectations are demanding, though the evidence does not point to broad, concentrated fragility beyond the expensive valuation.
Near term, revenue rose from $15.2 million in Q1 2026 to $23.2 million in Q2, while adjusted EBITDA, a measure of operating profit that excludes certain costs, rose from $0.9 million to a record $11.4 million. Management raised its 2026 guidance to $77–$82 million in revenue and $18–$22 million in adjusted EBITDA, and both goals are on track; the completed German ownership deal has a mixed early financial impact. High risk and a difficult sector backdrop remain, and a guidance cut after the recent raise would damage management credibility.
Over the next year, the thesis hinges on CURI delivering its raised 2026 guidance and sustaining stronger profitability. A reversal in guidance would weaken confidence, while Fed rate cuts or continued earnings strength among sector peers could support the sector backdrop. The early financial impact of full ownership of the German operations also remains a point to watch.
For a 1–3 year view, improving results and raised guidance support an intact thesis, but the premium valuation and loss-making, high-risk profile leave little room for execution to falter. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in CuriosityStream, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Complete integration with positive impact. |
| Intact |
| Acquisition fails to integrate or causes losses |
Qualitative: Integration completed 2026-07-07; Q2 2026 EBITDA record Acquisition completed July 2026. Q2 2026 earnings beat estimates with record EBITDA, supporting successful integration. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Full-year 2026 revenue near $77.5 million | CuriosityStream aims for full-year 2026 revenue near $77.5 million. | Intact | Full-year 2026 revenue falls below $70 million | Revenue: $23.245M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$77.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 202623,245,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.17 → $0.25 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.09B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.24 | $87,775,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.24 | $87,775,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.24 | $87,775,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.24 | $87,775,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.24 | $87,775,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.24 | $87,775,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.24 | $87,775,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.17 | $88,094,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.23 | $88,863,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.25 | $88,983,250 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.