Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG)
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$32.37-4.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.75 → 2.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CVLG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain CAPEX between $40M and $50M in 2026 | Covenant Logistics plans to keep capital spending between $40M and $50M in 2026. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $50M or falls below $40M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $33.801M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX $40M-$50M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202633,801,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk freight business trying to improve its margins through more committed contracts and tighter cost control. The long-term thesis is still developing: revenue and contract coverage have grown, but earnings quality is loss-making and recent performance trails its industry cohort.
CVLG screens cheap versus peers, while the valuation evidence labels expectations as justified and fragility as low. Confidence in that reading is low, and the evidence does not specify exactly what operating expectations the market assumes.
In the near term, results are mixed: third-quarter revenue and operating income rose from a year earlier, but the adjusted Operating Ratio worsened and company momentum fell sharply after fresh earnings. Management says about 80% of fleet assets were under long-term contracts at quarter-end, while cost progress and capital spending remain mixed; a sector headwind and recent peer misses add risk.
The multi-year case depends on expanding committed contracts across the asset-based business and turning that growth into sustained margin improvement. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers ODFL, XPO, and KNX would support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers would weaken it.
Over the next one to three years, CVLG’s thesis has evidence of growth in revenue and contract coverage, but margin delivery and earnings quality remain unresolved. The current read is watch, with elevated business risk and medium overall evidence confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $1.68 in 2026 and >= $2.62 in 2027. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $1.68 in 2026 or $2.62 in 2027 |
Diluted EPS: $0.32 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $1.68 in 2026 and >= $2.62 in 2027. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 7, 20260.32 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Quarterly dividend of $0.07 per share | The company pays a steady quarterly dividend of $0.07 per share. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.07 per share quarterly | Dividend per share: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend $0.07 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 20260.07 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.86 → $2.68 · observed estimates
$1.44B → $1.47B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.86 | $1,438,650,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.86 | $1,438,650,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.86 | $1,426,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.86 | $1,438,650,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.86 | $1,438,650,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.86 | $1,426,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.86 | $1,426,866,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.70 | $1,394,850,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.75 | $1,405,633,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,670 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.75 | $1,415,066,667 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.73 | $1,413,400,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.75 | $1,417,100,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.75 | $1,417,100,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.74 | $1,420,050,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.74 | $1,420,050,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.69 | $1,420,050,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.69 | $1,420,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.69 | $1,420,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.69 | $1,420,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.69 | $1,420,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.69 | $1,420,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.69 | $1,420,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.69 | $1,420,050,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.65 | $1,418,900,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.66 | $1,449,725,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.66 | $1,449,725,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.66 | $1,449,725,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.66 | $1,449,725,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.68 | $1,471,975,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.