Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.560.00%
Close 2026-07-02 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Effective capital allocation under new private ownership: Qualitative: $5.7B debt raised vs 'maintain growth' target.
Clearwater Analytics offers cloud-based investment accounting software. It targets $730 million revenue in 2025. New AI products support growth. The $8.4 billion buyout shows strong value.
The company is going private, which may limit growth and capital returns. It faces legal and financial risks from the merger. Profit margins and cash flow remain weak.
The price is about 32% above our fair value near $18. Analysts expect 22% revenue growth. Our view is cautious due to the buyout and risks.
Breaks if: Capital allocation shifts away from growth or increases financial risk materially
Breaks if: AI products fail to gain market traction or generate revenue
Breaks if: revenue falls below $700 million in FY25
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
CWAN represents a speculative growth investment with a medium level of confidence. The current thesis state is watchful due to recent challenges in management and financial performance.
The market seems to be pricing in a stretched valuation with a durable premium compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that investors may have moderate optimism about future performance.
Fundamentals are expected to show some improvement as management works towards its revenue and EBITDA targets. However, the company has faced recent volatility, and its financial performance has been below that of its industry peers.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet its financial targets and the overall performance of the tech sector. Key factors include potential interest rate cuts by the Fed and the performance of major sector players like SAP and CRM.
In the next 1 to 3 years, CWAN's performance will depend on management execution and external market conditions. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. AQR's investment in Clearwater indicates confidence in its growth potential. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.