Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$24.560.00%
Close 2026-07-02 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CWAN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CWAN — director transition
Dated 2026-06-25
Director — Dr. Mukesh Aghi, Jacques Aigrain, Cary Davis, Christopher Hooper, Lisa Jones, Eric Lee, D. Scott Mackesy, Bas NieuweWeme and Andrew Young: Directors resigned as part of a Merger.
Why it matters: ARR rose 77% in Q1 2026. A sharp slowdown would weaken the recent growth signal.
Worry ifThe next reported ARR growth rate is below 70% year over year.
Less concerning ifThe next reported ARR growth rate is 70% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: The new owners said private ownership gives Clearwater room to speed up AI and platform work. Named product launches would show progress.
Supportive ifClearwater announces a new AI agent or platform product, with a named launch or client use.
Worry ifClearwater reports no named AI agent or platform launch in its next public update. Or, it delays a stated launch.
Why it matters: Retention shows whether current clients add more business than they remove. A rate below 100% means revenue from those clients shrank.
Worry ifThe next reported net revenue retention rate is below 100%.
Less concerning ifThe next reported net revenue retention rate is 100% or higher.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$16 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $151 loss on $10,000 · 1.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,728 loss on $10,000 · 17.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.