Clearwater Analytics Holdings, Inc. (CWAN)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.560.00%
Close 2026-07-02 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CWAN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 33.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 22.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 120 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CWAN — director transition
Dated 2026-06-25
Director — Dr. Mukesh Aghi, Jacques Aigrain, Cary Davis, Christopher Hooper, Lisa Jones, Eric Lee, D. Scott Mackesy, Bas NieuweWeme and Andrew Young: Directors resigned as part of a Merger.
Why it matters: Hitting this EBITDA target shows strong performance. It shows the company's ability to make money.
Supportive ifFull year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA reported at $247M or higher.
Worry ifFull year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA is below $247M.
Why it matters: Going private helps speed up investment in AI. This could improve competitive position.
Supportive ifNew AI product features or updates have been shared.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in AI roadmap investments.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Clearwater can improve its loss-making status. Investors look for signs of recovery.
Watch forEarnings report shows a reduction in losses compared to the previous quarter.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows losses are getting bigger or staying the same.
Why it matters: Sustaining revenue growth is key for Clearwater's future. A slowdown could signal deeper issues.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue growth falls below 60% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQuarterly revenue growth stays above 60% compared to last year.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$16 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $221 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,379 loss on $10,000 · 23.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The merger will change Clearwater's strategy and its place in the market.
Supportive ifAn official announcement says the merger is done and the company is private.
Worry ifThe merger is delayed or cancelled due to rules or money issues.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in Clearwater's market. This affects its performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below its average from the past.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth is still above its average from the past.
Why it matters: Management aims for $730M to $731M in revenue for 2025. Growth signals overall health.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue is above $730M, showing strong growth.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue is below $700M, showing growth challenges.
Why it matters: FIRB approval is the last regulatory hurdle before the acquisition can fully close. This impacts future growth plans.
Supportive ifFIRB approved the acquisition. This allows it to finalize.
Worry ifFIRB denied approval. This delays the acquisition process.
Why it matters: Achieving this revenue target shows strong growth. It reflects the company's market position.
Supportive ifFull year 2025 revenue reported between $730M and $731M.
Worry ifRevenue falls below $730M, indicating weaker growth.
Why it matters: The growth rate will show if the company can maintain momentum after a strong Q1. It is crucial for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth rate exceeds 70% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth rate falls below 60% year-over-year.
Why it matters: The merger will change Clearwater's plans and money options.
Supportive ifThe merger is done, and CWAN is now a private company.
Worry ifThe merger has unexpected delays or problems.
Why it matters: This rate shows how well CWAN retains and expands revenue from existing clients. It's key for growth.
Supportive ifNet revenue retention rate exceeds 108% in the next reporting period.
Worry ifNet revenue retention rate falls below 100%, showing client losses.