Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
California Water Service Group (CWT)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.83+1.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.70 → 2.67 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CWT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Invest up to $627 million in infrastructure in 2026 | It will invest $627 million in infrastructure this year. | Intact | Capital investment falls below $550 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CWT is a regulated water utility with a multi-year thesis tied to infrastructure investment and recovering costs through rate mechanisms. The thesis is currently intact, though recent momentum has weakened and the latest earnings event was negative.
CWT is rated cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are not strongly elevated. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility rather than a combination of expensive valuation and weak execution.
Through the multi-year view, higher infrastructure investment and approved rate changes support revenue and cost recovery. Near term, CWT reported an earnings miss, and the evidence flags repeated misses across recent quarters; the miss probability is assessed at 46%.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative for the thesis, while continued delivery on infrastructure investment and rate recovery would support it. Fed rate cuts and strong results from water utility peers could help the sector backdrop, but those factors are uncertain.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on steady infrastructure execution and regulatory cost recovery, balanced against a weaker recent earnings trend. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings and cash flow should improve with these investments. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $2.20 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $1.05 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.45 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 20261.05 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue by $90.5 million in 2026 | A primary condition in California Water Service Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $90.5 million increase. | Intact | Revenue increase falls below $70 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.75 → $2.67 · observed estimates
$1.15B → $1.16B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.75 | $1,151,950,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.76 | $1,158,113,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.75 | $1,151,950,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.76 | $1,158,113,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.76 | $1,158,113,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.76 | $1,158,113,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.76 | $1,158,113,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.75 | $1,161,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.75 | $1,161,050,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.77 | $1,164,180,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.77 | $1,164,180,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.72 | $1,163,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.72 | $1,163,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.72 | $1,163,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.72 | $1,163,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.76 | $1,163,128,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.76 | $1,163,128,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.76 | $1,163,128,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.72 | $1,163,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.72 | $1,163,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.76 | $1,163,128,330 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.72 | $1,163,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.72 | $1,163,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.72 | $1,163,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.72 | $1,163,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.72 | $1,163,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.72 | $1,163,650,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.74 | $1,161,146,250 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.70 | $1,163,117,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.68 | $1,157,997,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.67 | $1,158,537,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.67 | $1,158,537,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.67 | $1,158,537,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.67 | $1,158,537,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.67 | $1,158,537,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.