California Water Service Group (CWT)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
$50.03-0.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated WaterSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CWT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers
CWT — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-29
Other Events On July 29, 2026, California Water Service Group issued a press release (a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference) announcing the declaration of a quarterly dividend of $0.3350 per common share. The quarterly dividend will be payable on August 21, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on August 10, 2026.
Why it matters: Investing in infrastructure helps service reliability and growth. It shows a long-term plan.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 infrastructure investments reach or go over $150 million.
Worry ifIn Q3 2026, infrastructure investments will be less than $130 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows how well the new rate changes work. These changes are from the GRC.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue increases by at least 10.9% compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth is less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The plan allows $1.45 billion in investments to improve water systems. This is crucial for long-term service reliability.
Supportive ifThe company says it finished important projects. These projects were paid for by the investment plan.
Worry ifDelays or extra costs in the projects cause problems for operations.
Why it matters: Falling customer use hurt revenue in Q1. Ongoing drops could impact future earnings.
Worry ifCustomer consumption data shows a decline greater than 5% year over year in Q2.
Less concerning ifCustomer use data shows an increase or stability in Q2 compared to last year.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it indicates a positive shift in the utility sector. This could benefit CWT.
Supportive ifRevenue growth in the utility sector exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth in the utility sector remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: The increase in revenue from the GRC is crucial for funding infrastructure and supporting growth.
Supportive if2026 revenue increases by at least $90.5 million as authorized by the 2024 CA GRC.
Worry ifRevenue does not grow as expected or goes down. This shows problems with rate recovery.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It also shows a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company pays the declared dividend of $0.3350 per share on the scheduled date.
Worry ifThe company delays or stops the dividend payment. This raises concerns about cash flow.
Why it matters: New rate structures aim to stabilize revenue. They also help keep services affordable. Customer acceptance is key.
Watch forCustomer satisfaction goes up after the new rates start.
Also watch forCustomer complaints go up or there is strong pushback against the new rates.
Why it matters: Good earnings results would help rebuild confidence after the Q1 miss and support growth.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings results show net income above $5 million.
Worry ifQ2 earnings results show net income below $4 million.
Why it matters: This growth shows that the 2024 CA GRC rate increases are working and stabilizing revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue increases by more than $90.5 million compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue growth is less than $90.5 million compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This acquisition would help the company gain more customers and make more money.
Supportive ifThe acquisition will close by the end of 2026 if all approvals are granted.
Worry ifThe deal might not close. There could be big delays due to regulatory issues.
Why it matters: Reaching this investment goal shows a commitment to better service and long-term growth.
Supportive ifTotal infrastructure investments reach $627 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTotal infrastructure investments fall short of $627 million by the end of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$82 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $244 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,459 loss on $10,000 · 14.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.