Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CoreCivic (CXW)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.23-7.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.43 → 2.40 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CXW yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Net income and diluted EPS growth | A primary condition in CoreCivic's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $1.56 in FY26. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.99 in FY25 | Diluted EPS: $0.37 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $1.56 in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20260.37 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth through facility activations and acquisitions. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but it faces some volatility in management and elevated risk levels.
The valuation shows CXW is considered cheap compared to its peers, with a medium level of confidence in the model. The market currently has a negative expectations gap, indicating that it may not fully reflect the potential for future growth.
Management is on track to increase revenue and net income, driven by facility activations and acquisitions. However, operating margins are mixed, showing some pressure from start-up costs, which could affect overall performance in the near term.
The thesis hinges on CXW's ability to reverse its lowered guidance and improve its operational metrics. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like ALLE, MSA, and BCO will be crucial in determining the overall momentum in the Industrials sector.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CXW's performance will depend on its execution of management priorities and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in CoreCivic's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $52.31M in 2026-Q1. |
| Improving |
| Operating income falls below $36.27M in 2025-Q4 |
Operating income: $68.994M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $52.31M in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 202668,994,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth from facility activations and acquisitions | A primary condition in CoreCivic's published investment case. The stated target is >= $455.3M revenue in FY26. | Intact | Revenue falls below $353.7M in FY25 | Revenue: $684.917M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $455.3M revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026684,917,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The increases in Diluted EPS and Adjusted Diluted EPS compared with the prior year quarter resulted from continued occupancy increases at previously idle facilities resulting from new contract awards in the CoreCivic Residential segment at our 600-bed West Tennessee Detention Facility (West Tennessee Facility), the 2,560-bed California City Detention Facility (California City Facility), our 2,160-bed Diamondback Correctional Facility (Diamondback Facility), and the 1,033-bed Midwest Regional Reception Center (Midwest Facility).” “Occupancy levels in our Residential segment increased to 84.0% in the third quarter of 2026 from 76.7% in the third quarter of 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Execution of share repurchase program | A supporting condition in CoreCivic's published investment case. The stated target is Shares repurchased >= 28.1M by 2026-Q1. | Under Pressure | Shares repurchased fall below 25.7M by 2026-Q1 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Finally, Diluted EPS and Adjusted Diluted EPS benefited from lower interest expense, net, reflecting debt repayments and higher interest income on larger cash balances, as well as a 13.8% reduction in weighted average diluted shares outstanding primarily resulting from our share repurchase program, including most notably the $500.0 million ASR Agreement executed on August 10, 2026.” “As a result of the increase, the aggregate authorization under CoreCivic’s repurchase program increased from $1.2 billion of CoreCivic’s outstanding common stock to $1.7 billion of CoreCivic’s outstanding common stock.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.97 → $2.40 · observed estimates
$2.68B → $2.91B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.13 | $2,677,129,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.13 | $2,677,129,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.13 | $2,677,129,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.13 | $2,677,129,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.13 | $2,677,129,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.13 | $2,677,129,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.13 | $2,677,129,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.13 | $2,677,129,330 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.13 | $2,790,169,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.13 | $2,790,169,670 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.28 | $2,949,503,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.28 | $2,949,503,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.97 | $2,677,129,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.36 | $2,924,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.43 | $2,929,627,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.35 | $2,923,149,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.40 | $2,912,529,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.40 | $2,912,529,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.40 | $2,912,529,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.40 | $2,912,529,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.40 | $2,912,529,800 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.