CoreCivic (CXW)
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.23-7.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSecurity & Protection ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CXW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 29.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CXW — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-04
| Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 4, 2026, CoreCivic, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026 and updating full-year guidance for 2026. A copy of the release is furnished as part of this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The Company will hold a conference call to discuss its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 20…
Why it matters: Q3 results can show if new sites are adding income after their start-up costs. The call can also update the full-year outlook.
Watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA tops $109.4 million. Management keeps or raises its 2026 outlook.
Also watch forQ3 adjusted EBITDA falls below $109.4 million. Or management cuts its 2026 outlook.
Why it matters: CoreCivic sold four sites but plans to keep running them under ICE contracts. ICE can end those contracts for convenience or lack of funds.
Worry ifCoreCivic reports it still runs all four sites under ICE contracts. No contract ends, and payment terms do not drop.
Less concerning ifICE ends or cuts a contract for any of the four sites, or CoreCivic reports that it no longer runs one.
Why it matters: The repurchase can reduce shares outstanding, but uses cash from a large asset sale. The next report can show how much is complete.
Supportive ifA company filing or earnings report confirms the full $500 million repurchase is done.
Worry ifA company filing says the agreement ended early. Or it says less than the full $500 million will be repurchased.
Why it matters: Four activated sites earned $21.1 million in operating income in Q2. More use may lift margins, but ICE population at other sites fell.
Watch forThe next report shows higher occupancy at all four sites and Residential margins of at least 22.4%.
Also watch forOccupancy at the four sites fails to rise, or Residential margins fall below 22.4%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$176 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $363 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,015 loss on $10,000 · 20.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.