CoreCivic (CXW)
NYSEIndustrialsReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$34.71+3.12%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsReit - SpecialtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CXW
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 13 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CXW — government funding
Dated 2026-08-05
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Midwest Regional Reception Center On August 4, 2026, CoreCivic, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”), entered into an Agreement of Purchase and Sale (the “Midwest Purchase Agreement”) with the United States of America and its assigns, by and through the Department of Homeland Security (“Buyer”), pursuant to which, and upon the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein, the Company sold to Buyer its 1,033-bed Midwest Regional Rece…
Why it matters: A lower ratio shows better financial health and more room for growth.
Supportive ifNet debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio falls below 2.5x by the end of Q2 2026.
Worry ifNet debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio remains above 3.0x by the end of Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Federal revenue from ICE is a key driver of CoreCivic's growth. Monitoring this will help gauge demand stability.
Watch forFederal revenue from ICE increases by more than 20% year over year in the next quarter.
Also watch forFederal revenue from ICE decreases or grows less than 10% year over year in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good cost management and higher demand. This confirms operational strength.
Supportive ifNet income growth exceeds 50% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifNet income growth falls below 30% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Maintaining net income above this level shows ongoing strength in operations and supports growth goals.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 exceeds $37 million.
Worry ifNet income drops below $37 million. This shows possible problems in operations.
Why it matters: Updates on the share repurchase program show that management trusts the stock.
Watch forManagement says they will increase the share repurchase program.
Also watch forManagement suspends or cuts back the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if revenue growth continues and if margins improve. Investors look for strong performance to confirm growth trends.
Supportive ifTotal revenue is over $620 million. This shows growth from facility activations.
Worry ifTotal revenue is under $600 million. This may mean problems with growth or demand.
Why it matters: More revenue from ICE shows strong demand for CoreCivic's services and helps growth.
Supportive ifRevenue from ICE exceeds $261 million in Q3.
Worry ifRevenue from ICE falls below $261 million, suggesting weaker demand.
Why it matters: More share buybacks can show that management believes in the company's financial health. This can help the share price.
Supportive ifCoreCivic buys back at least $100 million of its shares in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share buybacks happen in the next quarter, even with the authorization.
Why it matters: Paying off the 2027 Notes will lower debt and interest costs. This helps financial health.
Supportive ifCoreCivic pays off the 2027 Notes on August 12, 2026.
Worry ifCoreCivic fails to redeem the 2027 Notes as planned.
Why it matters: More revenue from new contracts can boost overall financial results.
Supportive ifTotal revenue grows by over 25% year over year, thanks to new facilities.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth is below 25% year over year, despite new facilities.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$167 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $347 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,515 loss on $10,000 · 25.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.