Caesars Entertainment (CZR)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.18-0.61%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryGambling, Resorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CZR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -38.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CZR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Attached and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1 is a copy of the press release of the Registrant, dated October 27, 2026 , reporting the Registrant’s financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The information contained in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit furnished herewith, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise in…
Why it matters: Court action could affect the deal timeline or its closing terms. The supplied event record notes lawsuits tied to the deal and proxy.
Worry ifA court order blocks the merger vote or closing, or Caesars reports a delay tied to the lawsuits.
Less concerning ifThe court dismisses the deal-related claims, with no reported delay to the vote or closing.
Why it matters: Net debt fell to $10.795 billion from $11.018 billion at year-end. A rise above that level would reverse the reported decline.
Worry ifA later report shows net debt above $11.018 billion, the December 2025 level.
Less concerning ifA later report shows net debt below $10.795 billion, the September 2026 level.
Why it matters: Las Vegas revenue and EBITDA fell in Q3. A further decline would deepen the weakness in a major business segment.
Worry ifLas Vegas Adjusted EBITDA falls again year over year. It drops below $343 million in a comparable quarter.
Less concerning ifLas Vegas Adjusted EBITDA reaches at least $379 million, its Q3 2025 level, or grows year over year.
Why it matters: The deal gives shareholders $31 per share in cash. A failed vote could end the pending acquisition.
Watch forCaesars reports that shareholders approved the merger deal. It also reports that all required closing steps are complete.
Also watch forShareholders reject the deal, or Caesars reports that the merger deal has ended.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$17 on $10,000 · ±0.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $339 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,844 loss on $10,000 · 28.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.