Data I/O Corp (DAIO)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.840.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyHardware, Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DAIO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -81.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 40.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 121.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
DAIO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
and Exhibit 99.0 attached hereto is being furnished and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liability of that section, and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth would signal a weakening position in a growing sector. It could indicate deeper issues.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median for the sector.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median for the sector.
Why it matters: AI adoption is important for the company's change and future growth.
Watch forManagement sees clear gains in efficiency or revenue from using AI.
Also watch forNo major updates on AI impact. This shows slow progress in this area.
Why it matters: Good cost management is key. It helps improve margins and reach profitability.
Supportive ifOperating expenses in Q2 2026 drop below $4.75 million. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifOperating costs are over $4.75 million. This shows there are still problems.
Why it matters: If expenses drop, it shows good cost management. This is important for the company's finances.
Supportive ifOperational costs fell by over $1 million each year.
Worry ifExpenses are still high with no big cuts. This shows poor cost management.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$191 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $423 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,800 loss on $10,000 · 38.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The company aims for revenue growth this year. A reversal would indicate a change in business momentum.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported above 20% year over year in subsequent quarters.
Worry ifRevenue continues to decline year over year.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forThe earnings report shows smaller losses. It may also show a return to making money.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows bigger losses. There is no improvement in financial numbers.
Why it matters: Lower expenses show good cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating costs were under $3.5 million in Q3.
Worry ifOperating costs were over $3.5 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The results will clarify the impact of the $9 million investment and revenue growth. Investors will assess if the company continues to meet growth expectations.
Supportive ifFull Q2 financial results show net sales above $5.4 million, confirming growth.
Worry ifNet sales are under $5.0 million. This shows weaker performance than expected.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows growth and better operations.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at $5.0 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $5.0 million.
Why it matters: This acquisition may nearly double yearly revenue and increase profits. It is key for growth.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes by the end of Q3 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe acquisition fails to close or is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong growth shows the company is doing well. This helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifOrganic revenue growth exceeds 20% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifOrganic revenue growth falls below 20% compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins show the company is working efficiently. This helps increase profits.
Supportive ifGross margins improve beyond 57% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross margins decline below 57% in Q3 2026.