Delta Air Lines (DAL)
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$80.17+1.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -36.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 37.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
DAL — credit agreement
Dated 2026-06-12
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 11, 2026, Delta Air Lines, Inc. (“Delta,” “we,” “us” or “our”) entered into a credit agreement among Delta, JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent, and the lenders party thereto (the “Credit Facility”). The Credit Facility refinances Delta’s existing credit agreement, dated as of November 6, 2023 (as amended from time to time, the “Existing Credit Facility”), and replaces the Existing Credit Facility in its entirety. The proceeds…
Why it matters: Reducing debt helps keep a strong balance sheet and supports financial stability.
Supportive ifAdjusted net debt reported below $13 billion by Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted net debt is over $13.6 billion.
Why it matters: Managing non-fuel costs is key to maintaining margins amid rising fuel prices.
Worry ifNon-fuel unit costs grow at or below 2% year-over-year in Q3.
Less concerning ifNon-fuel unit costs grow above 6% year-over-year in Q3.
Why it matters: This figure will indicate if Delta is on track to achieve its 20% earnings growth target for the year.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EPS reported at $2.00 or higher.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EPS reported below $2.00.
Why it matters: Keeping capacity growth flat helps protect profits and boost revenue per unit.
Supportive ifCapacity growth remains flat as guided for the September quarter.
Worry ifCapacity growth increases beyond flat in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $358 loss on $10,000 · 3.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,290 loss on $10,000 · 22.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase shows that Delta is growing its high-margin revenue sources.
Supportive ifDiversified revenue streams exceed 61% of total revenue in Q3.
Worry ifDiversified revenue streams fall below 61% of total revenue.
Why it matters: Strong demand for corporate travel helps revenue grow. This shows business travel is coming back, which is key for Delta.
Supportive ifCorporate travel sales grew by double digits year over year in the June quarter.
Worry ifCorporate travel sales reported with flat or declining growth year over year in June quarter.
Why it matters: Higher fuel prices could hurt profits and earnings growth. This may affect overall performance.
Worry ifFuel prices remain at or below $3.15 per gallon for the September quarter.
Less concerning ifFuel prices rise above $3.15 per gallon.
Why it matters: Earnings per share within the target range shows effective cost management and revenue strength.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share reported between $2.00 and $2.50.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $2.00.
Why it matters: Strong sales growth shows high demand. It also shows good capacity management.
Supportive ifCorporate sales growth reported above 10% year over year.
Worry ifCorporate sales growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Reducing capacity growth may protect margins and help make more money.
Watch forCapacity growth is down a lot, which leads to better operating margins.
Also watch forIf capacity growth stays the same or goes up, it will hurt margins.
Why it matters: Higher fuel costs may hurt margins. This could affect profits in the June quarter.
Worry ifFuel costs reported above $4.30 per gallon for the June quarter.
Less concerning ifFuel costs remain below $4.30 per gallon for the June quarter.