Delta Air Lines (DAL)
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$89.24+7.16%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAirlines, Airports & Air ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DAL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -24.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DAL — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-09
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Delta Air Lines, Inc. today issued a press release reporting financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Form 8-K. The information furnished in this Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, shall not be deemed incorporated by reference into any other filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Why it matters: Delta cut its 2026 EPS outlook from $6.50–$7.50 to $5.10–$5.60. Meeting the new range would show how well it can absorb higher fuel costs.
Watch forFull-year 2026 adjusted EPS is at least $5.10 and free cash flow is near $2.5 billion.
Also watch forFull-year adjusted EPS is below $5.10, or free cash flow falls well below $2.5 billion.
Why it matters: Delta guided to about 20% revenue growth with seat growth below 2%. Strong results would back its plan to grow revenue while limiting capacity.
Supportive ifDecember-quarter revenue grows about 20% year over year. Seats rise less than 2%, and revenue per unit improves.
Worry ifDecember-quarter revenue growth falls well short of 20%, or revenue per unit falls year over year.
Why it matters: Non-fuel unit costs rose 7.3% in Q3. Delta said growth would ease by 1 to 2 points in Q4, then reach low single digits next year.
Supportive ifQ4 non-fuel unit cost growth is 5.3% to 6.3% or lower, then trends toward low single digits in 2027.
Worry ifQ4 non-fuel unit cost growth stays above 6.3%, or 2027 guidance is above low single digits.
Why it matters: Debt paydown is a stated priority, but Delta lowered its year-end leverage goal from about 2x to about 2.2x. The year-end report will show progress.
Watch forDelta pays down more than $2 billion of debt in 2026 and reports gross leverage near or below 2.2x.
Also watch forDebt paydown is below $2 billion, or gross leverage ends 2026 above 2.2x.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $346 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,290 loss on $10,000 · 22.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Premium and loyalty income help Delta rely less on basic ticket sales. Together, diverse revenue streams made up 61% of Q3 revenue.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, premium and loyalty revenue both grow year over year. Diverse streams stay near 61% of revenue.
Worry ifPremium or loyalty revenue falls year over year, or diverse streams drop well below 61% of revenue.