Darling Ingredients (DAR)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$50.70-3.06%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DAR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DAR — President transition
Dated 2026-02-25
Director, Lead Director, Chairman of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee — Gary W. Mize: Gary W. Mize plans to retire from the Board with a named successor, Robert Aspell.
Why it matters: Darling spent $343.5 million through Q3 and kept its 2026 estimate at $450 million. A large overrun could slow debt reduction.
Worry ifCapital spending for full-year 2026 is above $450 million.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 capital spending is $450 million or less.
Why it matters: DGD made $1.30 per gallon in Q3, below its $1.59 average for the first nine months. A rise would show better results after Q3 timing shifts.
Supportive ifDGD reports Adjusted EBITDA per gallon of at least $1.30 for Q4.
Worry ifDGD reports Adjusted EBITDA per gallon below $1.30 for Q4.
Why it matters: Darling cut net debt by about $420 million in Q3 and set a year-end goal. Meeting it would show that strong cash flow is reducing debt.
Supportive ifDarling reports net debt of $3.0 billion or less at fiscal year-end 2026.
Worry ifDarling reports net debt above $3.0 billion at fiscal year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Darling bought back $149.4 million of shares through Q3. Further purchases would show the company is still returning cash to shareholders.
Supportive ifA company filing or release reports more share buybacks after Q3 2026.
Worry ifA company filing or release reports no more buybacks, or says the program is paused or ended.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$162 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $311 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,581 loss on $10,000 · 25.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.