Darling Ingredients (DAR)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$65.19-0.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DAR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers
DAR — President transition
Dated 2026-02-25
Director, Lead Director, Chairman of the Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee — Gary W. Mize: Gary W. Mize plans to retire from the Board with a named successor, Robert Aspell.
Why it matters: Growth in operating income shows good cost management. It also shows better efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income growth exceeds 10% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income growth is below 10% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: New partnerships can drive growth and enhance market position. They signal confidence in future expansion.
Supportive ifThey will announce at least one new partnership after the May 11, 2026 Investor Day.
Worry ifNo new partnerships were announced. This may show slow growth.
Why it matters: Higher gross profit shows good cost management. It also shows smart pricing strategies.
Supportive ifGross profit increases year over year by more than 15% in Q2.
Worry ifGross profit growth is less than 15% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: RIN values affect how much money renewable diesel makes. Changes can impact finances.
Worry ifRIN values go up a lot. This helps DGD have higher margins.
Less concerning ifRIN values decrease sharply, leading to reduced margins for DGD.
Why it matters: Updates on the buyback program show management's trust in the company's value and cash flow.
Supportive ifNews of more buybacks or higher repurchase amounts over the $1 billion limit.
Worry ifNo updates or a reduction in the buyback program.
Why it matters: The leverage ratio shows how well a company can handle its debt.
Worry ifLeverage ratio improves to below 3.0x by Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifLeverage ratio increases above 3.5x by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Sales volume trends show how well Darling's renewable fuel segment is doing. This is key for growth.
Watch forSales volume of Diamond Green Diesel exceeds 350 million gallons in the next quarter.
Also watch forSales volume of Diamond Green Diesel falls below 300 million gallons in the next quarter.
Why it matters: New partnerships may help growth and operations. This can affect long-term value.
Supportive ifA new strategic partnership was announced. It will expand market reach and capabilities.
Worry ifNo new partnerships announced after the Investor Day on May 11, 2026.
Why it matters: Details on new partnerships could signal growth potential for Darling Ingredients. Limited progress so far raises questions.
Supportive ifA new partnership has been announced. It will have a big financial impact.
Worry ifNo new partnerships have been announced. There are delays in developing partnerships.
Why it matters: This guidance will show how well the core business is performing. It helps investors gauge future earnings potential.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is expected to be $325-340 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifGuidance falls below $325 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Reducing net debt is key for financial health and future growth. It shows management's commitment to improving the balance sheet.
Supportive ifNet debt falls to or below $3 billion by the end of 2026.
Worry ifNet debt remains above $3 billion by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Sticking to spending plans shows management is careful with money. This helps future growth and efficiency.
Supportive ifCapital spending for 2026 is between $400 million and $450 million.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $450 million for 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $307 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,903 loss on $10,000 · 19.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.