Dave, Inc. (DAVE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$380.69-2.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DAVE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -6.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DAVE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Dave Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchan…
Why it matters: Beating expectations would show strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings exceed consensus estimates by more than 5%.
Worry ifQ2 earnings are lower than what analysts expected.
Why it matters: A successful rollout could raise average revenue per user and help growth.
Supportive ifARPU goes up a lot after the CashAI v6.0 rollout.
Worry ifARPU stays the same or goes down after the CashAI v6.0 rollout.
Why it matters: Raising EPS guidance would reflect strong earnings growth and confidence in future performance.
Supportive ifManagement raises adjusted EPS guidance to more than $17.50.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers adjusted EPS guidance to less than $17.00.
Why it matters: Slower growth in ExtraCash could mean less demand for credit products.
Worry ifExtraCash growth stays above 30% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifExtraCash growth drops below 20% in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$279 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $681 loss on $10,000 · 6.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,911 loss on $10,000 · 39.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Slower member growth may show issues in gaining or keeping customers.
Worry ifNew member growth drops below 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifNew member growth stays at or above 30% year over year.
Why it matters: A successful rollout could make products better. It may also boost member engagement.
Watch forPositive feedback from early engagement with CashAI v6.0 and Dave Flex.
Also watch forNegative feedback or delays in the rollout of CashAI v6.0.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EBITDA margin may mean higher costs or problems.
Worry ifEBITDA margin is now below 44%.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays at or above 44%.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal weakening demand or execution issues.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth remains at or above 30% year over year.
Why it matters: More buybacks may mean management trusts the stock's value.
Supportive ifShare repurchase activity is above $20 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchase activity is below $10 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Strong engagement shows the product can help future growth.
Supportive ifGood engagement metrics for CashAI v6.0 are expected in the next quarters.
Worry ifWeak engagement metrics for CashAI v6.0 are reported.