Dave, Inc. (DAVE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$336.22+6.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DAVE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 33.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DAVE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 5, 2026, Dave Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchan…
Why it matters: Dave Flex is in early tests. More use could show whether this new product adds member activity and revenue.
Watch forDave reports wider Dave Flex tests and gives a clear measure of member use or revenue.
Also watch forDave reports weak test use, stops adding test members, or delays any wider rollout.
Why it matters: Dave raised its 2026 revenue, EBITDA, and EPS ranges in August. Q3 results will test whether that pace holds.
Watch forQ3 results keep 2026 guidance at or above $725 million to $735 million in revenue. Adjusted EBITDA stays at $315 million to $325 million, and adjusted EPS stays at $17.00 to $17.50.
Also watch forDave cuts any of those 2026 ranges or reports results below its stated range.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue was $170.8 million. Management said MTM growth may speed up in the second half.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue tops $181 million, about 30% above Q3 2025 revenue of $150.8 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $181 million, or management cuts its 2026 revenue range below $725 million to $735 million.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin was 72%. Management tied further gains to lower credit-loss costs in the second half.
Supportive ifA second-half quarter reports non-GAAP gross margin of 74% or higher.
Worry ifSecond-half non-GAAP gross margin stays at or below 72%, or falls below that level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$240 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $712 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,687 loss on $10,000 · 36.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The Q2 rate was 2.12%. Management said CashAI v6.0 may keep loss rates near that level as loan sizes grow.
Worry ifThe Q3 28-day past-due rate rises above 2.12% as ExtraCash originations grow.
Less concerning ifThe rate stays at or below 2.12% as ExtraCash originations grow year over year.