Digital Brands Group Inc (DBGI)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.77+3.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DBGI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 18.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| -24.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
DBGI — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-27
Regulation FD Disclosure On July 27, 2026, Digital Brands Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing an expansion of its secured U.S. program to approximately $165 million, representing a 32% increase. The expansion reflects the addition of new apparel and footwear categories and approximately $40 million of incremental revenue, following the Company’s previously effected 1-for-40 reverse stock split. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is inc…
Why it matters: Exploring private options may help raise shareholder value. It shows management cares about stock.
Watch forA clear offer or deal about the private exploration will be shared.
Also watch forNo news or progress has been shared about the private exploration.
Why it matters: Updates on free cash flow are important to track progress toward the $10-$12M target by 2027.
Supportive ifManagement raises free cash flow guidance for 2026 above $3.5M.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance remains at or below $2.5M for 2026.
Why it matters: News about take-private options can change how shareholders view value.
Supportive ifA formal announcement of a clear offer or deal for the take-private process.
Worry ifNo updates or a statement that the take-private plans are on hold.
Why it matters: M&A could help drive growth and improve market position. Any news is significant.
Watch forA new acquisition or partnership was announced. This will help reach more customers.
Also watch forNo new M&A announcements or strategic partnerships in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$741 on $10,000 · ±7.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $2,335 loss on $10,000 · 23.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,949 loss on $10,000 · 99.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This cash flow is a key part of the $165 million U.S. Program. It shows early success in the collegiate program.
Supportive ifThe company expects to receive $3.3 million in cash flow by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifFailure to secure the $3.3 million cash flow by December 31, 2026.
Why it matters: The sector is going down. Positive revenue growth could mean a recovery.
Supportive ifRevenue growth turns positive after being negative for a period.
Worry ifRevenue keeps going down. This shows the sector is facing challenges.
Why it matters: Management aims for $55M to $65M in revenue. Confirmation would show growth potential.
Supportive ifManagement will confirm revenue plans during the earnings call on August 12, 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers the revenue guidance below $55M for 2026.
Why it matters: Improving revenue growth is key to reaching the $55-$65M target for 2026. It shows the business is gaining traction.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue shows growth year over year, exceeding $1.87M from Q1 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue continues to decline year over year, falling below $1.32M.
Why it matters: Growth in the collegiate program is a key priority for management. It impacts overall revenue targets.
Supportive ifRevenue from the collegiate program increases by at least 20% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifRevenue from the college program goes down or stays the same each quarter.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is crucial for financial health. It signals a turnaround in operations.
Supportive ifReported positive cash flow in Q3 2026.
Worry ifContinued negative cash flow reported in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Management targets $2.5M to $3.5M in free cash flow. Updates will show financial health.
Supportive ifManagement reports free cash flow in the range of $2.5M to $3.5M during the next earnings call.
Worry ifFree cash flow will be below $2.5M in the next financial statements.
Why it matters: More expansion could show strong demand and better financial health.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of additional contracts or revenue increases from the U.S. program beyond $165 million.
Worry ifNo new expansion news or a drop in the program's value.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue growth and cash flow progress.
Watch forQ2 earnings show revenue growth of at least 15% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue decline or cash flow remains negative.
Why it matters: Achieving $10-$12M in free cash flow by 2027 is crucial for financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow improves to at least -$1M in Q2.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative at -$4M or worse in Q2.