Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Dauch Corporation (DCH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.42-7.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.21 → 1.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DCH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve positive adjusted free cash flow | A primary condition in Dauch Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Adjusted free cash flow >= $235M in FY26. | Improving | adjusted free cash flow remains negative or below $235M in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an acquisition-led growth and execution story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The thesis has recently improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but it remains on watch because earnings quality is loss-making and management execution has been volatile.
DCH is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a 43% premium versus peers, so the valuation comparison is mixed. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests the market is not fully pricing in the modeled outlook; the evidence rates priced-in fragility as low.
Near term, revenue growth is supported by the Dowlais contribution, and adjusted free cash flow improved from negative in the first quarter of 2026 to positive in the second. The full-year cash flow target remains to be delivered, and the latest release is not detailed enough here to judge the full quarter; peer weakness, smaller-company risk, and a recent CFO transition add uncertainty.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on sustaining the revenue contribution from Dowlais and meeting the 2026 adjusted free cash flow target while keeping capital spending within guidance. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility, while continued strength or weakness among sector bellwethers could shift the sector backdrop.
For the 1- to 3-year view, DCH has signs of improving execution, but the business remains loss-making and its performance has trailed its industry cohort. The thesis depends on cash flow delivery, steady guidance, and continued benefit from Dowlais. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Gross profit improved by $51.5 million, showing better margins. |
| Improving |
| gross profit margin falls below 2025-Q1 levels sustainably |
Gross margin: 11.44% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain or improve gross profit margin relative to 2026-Q1 levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Aug 7, 202611.442685 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth driven by Dowlais acquisition | Dauch Corporation is growing revenue fast, boosted by the Dowlais acquisition. | Intact | total revenue falls below $10.3B in FY26 | Revenue: $2.956B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $10.55B total revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 20262,955,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “1 Dauch's Updated 2026 Financial Outlook Dauch's full year 2026 financial targets which include a partial year contribution from Dowlais (as of February 3, 2026 close) are as follows: • Sales in the range of $10.6 - $10.8 billion vs. $10.3 - $10.8 billion previously.” “Dauch. “We are focused on unlocking the full strategic potential of the transformational acquisition we completed earlier in the year.”” Revenue was $2.956 billion in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.07 → $1.15 · observed estimates
$10.96B → $11.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.08 | $10,971,303,820 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.08 | $10,971,303,820 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.08 | $10,971,303,820 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.08 | $10,971,303,820 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.08 | $10,971,303,820 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.08 | $10,971,303,820 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.09 | $10,978,120,230 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.07 | $10,962,097,686 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.19 | $11,039,647,834 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.19 | $11,039,647,834 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.19 | $11,039,647,834 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.19 | $11,039,647,834 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.19 | $11,039,647,834 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.19 | $11,039,647,834 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.19 | $11,039,647,834 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.19 | $11,039,647,834 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.19 | $11,039,647,834 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.19 | $11,056,612,617 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.19 | $11,056,612,617 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.19 | $11,056,612,617 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.19 | $11,056,612,617 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.19 | $11,056,612,617 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.19 | $11,056,612,617 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.19 | $11,056,612,617 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.19 | $11,056,612,617 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.19 | $11,056,612,617 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.19 | $11,056,612,617 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.19 | $11,056,612,617 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.21 | $11,066,782,617 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.21 | $11,055,284,197 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.21 | $11,055,284,197 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.21 | $11,055,284,197 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.21 | $11,055,284,197 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.21 | $11,055,284,197 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.21 | $11,055,284,197 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.21 | $11,055,284,197 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.21 | $11,055,284,197 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.21 | $11,055,284,197 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.21 | $11,055,284,197 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.21 | $11,055,284,197 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.21 | $11,055,284,197 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.21 | $11,055,284,197 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.22 | $11,064,595,902 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.22 | $11,064,595,902 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.22 | $11,064,595,902 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.22 | $11,064,595,902 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.22 | $11,064,595,902 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.22 | $11,064,595,902 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.22 | $11,064,595,902 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.22 | $11,064,595,902 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.22 | $11,064,595,902 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.22 | $11,064,595,902 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.21 | $11,070,149,203 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.21 | $11,070,149,203 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.21 | $11,070,149,203 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.21 | $11,070,149,203 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.21 | $11,070,149,203 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.19 | $11,067,621,696 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.19 | $11,067,621,696 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.19 | $11,067,621,696 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.18 | $11,066,194,423 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.18 | $11,066,194,423 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.18 | $11,066,194,423 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.17 | $11,066,194,423 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.16 | $11,066,194,423 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.17 | $11,058,183,177 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.17 | $11,058,183,177 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.17 | $11,058,183,177 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.17 | $11,058,183,177 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.16 | $11,041,464,995 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.16 | $11,041,464,995 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.16 | $11,041,464,995 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.19 | $11,041,464,995 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.19 | $11,041,464,995 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.19 | $11,041,464,995 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.19 | $11,041,464,995 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.19 | $11,041,464,995 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.17 | $11,025,192,268 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.15 | $11,002,574,086 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.15 | $11,002,574,086 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.15 | $11,002,574,086 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.15 | $11,002,574,086 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.15 | $11,002,574,086 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.15 | $11,002,574,086 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.15 | $11,002,574,086 | 7 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.