Dauch Corporation (DCH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.42-7.72%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DCH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -50.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 21.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 20 industry peers
DCH — CFO transition
Dated 2026-10-13
CFO — Christopher May: The CFO is transitioning to an internal Executive Vice President role rather than leaving the company, indicating an orderly internal succession rather than a loss of executive talent.
Why it matters: Dauch set a clear spending range while it integrates Dowlais. Spending above that range could put pressure on cash flow.
Worry ifFull-year capital spending stays at or below 5% of sales.
Less concerning ifFull-year capital spending goes above 5% of sales.
Why it matters: Iles is set to take over as CFO after an onboarding period. A smooth handoff can keep finance work on track during the Dowlais integration.
Watch forDauch confirms Iles takes the CFO role on Dec. 1 and reports no delay to planned financial updates.
Also watch forDauch delays the Dec. 1 handoff or announces another change to the CFO transition.
Why it matters: Adjusted free cash flow was negative $40.8M in Q1 and positive $148.4M in Q2. The full-year target starts at $235M.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted free cash flow is at least $235M, within the stated $235M–$325M range.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 adjusted free cash flow is below $235M or Dauch cuts the bottom of its target range.
Why it matters: Dauch raised its 2026 synergy estimate from $50M–$75M to $60M–$75M. Delivery would support its plan to gain value from Dowlais.
Supportive ifDauch reports at least $60M of 2026 adjusted EBITDA from synergies and keeps the year-one run-rate goal above $100M.
Worry ifDauch reports less than $60M of 2026 synergy benefits or cuts the year-one run-rate goal below $100M.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$236 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $601 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,967 loss on $10,000 · 49.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Dauch reported Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $355M–$360M in its Oct. 30 update. The full report can confirm that result and explain the net loss.
Watch forThe Nov. 6 report shows adjusted EBITDA of at least $355M and explains the expected net loss of $42M–$47M.
Also watch forThe Nov. 6 report shows adjusted EBITDA below $355M or a net loss above $47M.