Dauch Corporation (DCH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.99+4.80%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DCH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -35.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 19.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 54.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DCH — President transition
Dated 2026-04-17
President – Axle Systems — Tolga Oal: Mr. Tolga Oal's employment was terminated by the Board of Directors.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key to prove the Dowlais acquisition is good and needed.
Worry ifQ2 sales growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 sales growth reported at 10% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Going above this target would show strong demand. It would also show good integration of the Dowlais acquisition.
Supportive ifTotal sales for 2026 surpass $10.6 billion.
Worry ifTotal sales for 2026 fall below $10.3 billion.
Why it matters: More synergies would help revenue growth and boost profits. This supports the acquisition plan.
Supportive ifSynergies from Dowlais integration are more than $75 million.
Worry ifSynergies from Dowlais integration are less than $50 million.
Why it matters: The new contract may change labor costs. It can also affect stability at Three Rivers.
Watch forThree Rivers runs smoothly after the contract is approved. There are no disruptions.
Also watch forDisruptions or labor issues arise despite the new contract.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$261 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $604 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,344 loss on $10,000 · 43.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows Dauch is improving cash flow after a weak start to the year. It signals better financial health and operational efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow reports $260 million or more for the full year 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow remains below $235 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: More savings would show good teamwork and strong operations after the deal.
Supportive ifDowlais has saved over $75 million.
Worry ifSavings are below $50 million.
Why it matters: Sales growth will show if the Dowlais acquisition is boosting revenue as planned.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 sales were over $2.5 billion. This shows strong revenue growth.
Worry ifQ2 2026 sales were under $2.3 billion. This points to integration problems.
Why it matters: The new contract at the Three Rivers facility may change productivity and labor costs. This is important for stability.
Watch forProductivity at the Three Rivers facility gets better. This leads to more output.
Also watch forThe new contract may cause production issues or higher labor costs.
Why it matters: Revenue growth indicates successful integration of Dowlais. This is key for Dauch's long-term strategy.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue exceeds $3 billion in Q3.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue falls below $2.9 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in margin may show problems or rising costs hurting profits.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 12.7% for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is 12.7% or higher for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on free cash flow guidance will show if Dauch can meet its targets. This is key for financial health.
Watch forAdjusted free cash flow guidance raised to $260 - $325 million for 2026.
Also watch forGuidance is the same or lower than $260 - $325 million.
Why it matters: Stable margins mean Dauch can control costs and grow sales. This is key for making money.
Watch forGross profit margin remains at or above 13.2% in Q3.
Also watch forGross profit margin drops below 13.2% in Q3.