Reading DCI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DCI free→Reading DCI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track DCI free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Industrial MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits may not be well-supported by cash flow. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, suggesting challenges in the current market environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include any potential guidance cuts from DCI and the performance of sector bellwethers, as these could significantly impact the stock. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $86.40. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $86 DCI trades at 22× p/e, below its 24× p/e peer median. Our $94 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $91–$96. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 8% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.05x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.17 → $1.12 (-3.7% / 30d). 3 raised, 4 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 22% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 6.8% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$97.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$199.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,604.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Guidance will show if the company can maintain its strong earnings growth after Q3.
Confirms:Fourth quarter adjusted EPS guidance raised above $1.06.
Disproves:Guidance for fourth quarter adjusted EPS falls below $1.06.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for DCI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 2, 2026, Donaldson Company, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$91.00 – $96.00 (median $91.00) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
DCI Donaldson Company | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | fair | moderate |
PH Parker Hannifin | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | full | moderate |
ITW Illinois Tool Works | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 92 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GWW W. W. Grainger | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | moderate |
DOV Dover Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | fair | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on delivering full-year record sales, adjusted operating margin, and adjusted earnings.
Target an adjusted operating margin between 15.8% and 16.2% for fiscal 2026.
Maintain capital expenditures between $60 million and $75 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insights on Donaldson's performance and market position. This could affect stock sentiment.
Confirms one read:Earnings per share (EPS) beats consensus estimates by more than 5%.
Confirms the other:EPS misses consensus estimates by more than 5%.
Why it matters: An increase in operating margin would confirm management's goal for the year.
Confirms:Operating margin exceeds 16.2% in Q4.
Disproves:Operating margin falls below 15.8% in Q4.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it signals a potential recovery for Donaldson and its peers. This could improve investor sentiment.
Confirms:Three-year revenue growth in the industrials sector rises above 10%.
Disproves:Three-year revenue growth in the industrials sector stays below 8%.
Why it matters: Sales growth here is crucial after recent declines in this segment.
Confirms one read:Industrial Solutions segment sales grow year over year by more than 2%.
Confirms the other:Sales in the Industrial Solutions segment fell compared to last year.
Why it matters: The acquisition's performance will show if it adds value to Donaldson's portfolio.
Confirms:Facet contributes more than $30 million in sales in Q4.
Disproves:Facet contributes less than $25 million in sales in Q4.
Why it matters: More people filing for unemployment may show economic problems. This could lower demand for Donaldson's products.
Confirms:Unemployment claims rise above 300,000 for the week.
Disproves:Unemployment claims fall below 250,000 for the week.