Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ducommun, Inc. (DCO)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$132.50-15.24%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.36 → 5.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DCO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain Adjusted EBITDA margin at 18% | Adjusted EBITDA margin is targeted at 18% as it manages costs effectively. | Under Pressure | falls below 15% | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA expanded by 130 bps year-over-year from 15.8% to 17.1% and DCO is in excellent shape working towards the VISION 2027 financial goal of 18% Adjusted EBITDA.” ““Halfway through year four, our strong performance across revenue, gross margin, and Adjusted EBITDA margins along with our record level of Remaining Performance Obligations positions us well towards meeting our VISION 2027 targets.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is an execution-led industrial growth thesis, supported by aerospace and defense demand rather than by current profitability. The multi-year view is mildly favorable, but the thesis remains in a watch state because recent performance trails its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence shows DCO at a 1.4-times premium versus peers, with expectations close to the model’s view and no major fragility signals. However, the value factor is loss-making, so the premium rests on continued progress in growth and margins rather than current earnings strength.
In the near term, revenue and margins have improved: second-quarter 2026 revenue grew 12% year over year, while gross and adjusted EBITDA margins expanded. Management remains on track with its stated priorities, though commercial aerospace destocking is still a headwind and recent earnings surprises have trended lower; a prior non-reliance event also adds a reporting concern.
Over the multi-year horizon, the thesis depends on sustaining revenue and margin progress toward VISION 2027 goals, while missile production growth and easing commercial aerospace destocking support demand. Near-term estimates are vulnerable if guidance is cut, while results and guidance from sector bellwethers could either sustain or weaken the broader industrial backdrop.
DCO’s operating progress supports a cautiously improving multi-year thesis, but the peer premium, loss-making valuation evidence, sector headwinds, and reporting concern leave execution as the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Strengthen missile franchise revenue growth | A supporting condition in Ducommun, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=7.9 million increase in revenue. | Intact | missile franchise revenue does not increase | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Ducommun’s defense business saw significant growth once again across our missile franchise and particularly on the PAC-3 and SM-6 missile platforms, along with growth on fixed-wing aircraft platforms notably the F-15, partially offset by temporal weakness on radar, space and naval programs.” “Ducommun’s defense business saw growth yet again with our missile franchise specifically the Patriot missile platform being a highlight along with good growth on fixed-wing aircraft platforms including the F35 and the F-15.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve record revenue growth under VISION 2027 | The company aims for record revenue and margin growth under its VISION 2027 plan. | Intact | falls below 10% YoY growth | Revenue growth: 10.99% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=12% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202610.991793 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Adjusted EBITDA expanded by 130 bps year-over-year from 15.8% to 17.1% and DCO is in excellent shape working towards the VISION 2027 financial goal of 18% Adjusted EBITDA.” ““Halfway through year four, our strong performance across revenue, gross margin, and Adjusted EBITDA margins along with our record level of Remaining Performance Obligations positions us well towards meeting our VISION 2027 targets.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.12 → $5.35 · observed estimates
$0.97B → $0.97B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.12 | $966,451,410 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.12 | $966,451,410 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.12 | $966,451,410 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.12 | $966,451,410 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.12 | $966,451,410 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.12 | $966,451,410 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.12 | $966,451,410 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.12 | $966,451,410 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.32 | $965,743,010 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.12 | $966,451,415 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.36 | $968,165,094 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.36 | $968,167,059 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.36 | $968,167,059 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.37 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.35 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.35 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.35 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.35 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.35 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.35 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.35 | $968,589,215 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.