Ducommun, Inc. (DCO)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$168.32+1.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DCO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 8.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DCO — legal / regulatory event — Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Rep…
Dated 2026-05-01
Non-Reliance on Previously Issued Financial Statements or a Related Audit Report or Completed Interim Review. While preparing the first quarter 2026 consolidated financial statements of Ducommun Incorporated (the “Company” or “Ducommun”), management identified an error in the Company’s historical consolidated financial statements relating to the timing of stock-based compensation expense recognition (the “Error”). In particular, the Company did not apply the proper accounting for changes made…
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Ducommun can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Watch forThe earnings report shows smaller losses. It may also show a profit.
Also watch forEarnings report shows continued losses or a larger loss than expected.
Why it matters: Management said there are fewer issues with stock levels in commercial aerospace. This could mean growth is coming back.
Supportive ifManagement says destocking pressures have dropped a lot in Q3.
Worry ifManagement says destocking pressures are still high or getting worse in Q3.
Why it matters: High stock-based pay can hurt profits and cash flow.
Worry ifIf stock-based pay costs are under $5 million, it shows better cost control.
Less concerning ifIf stock-based pay costs exceed $5 million, it shows ongoing cost issues.
Why it matters: New contracts could increase revenue and support Ducommun's defense plan.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new contracts with RTX or Lockheed Martin valued over $10 million.
Worry ifNo new contracts announced with RTX or Lockheed Martin in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$203 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $390 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,999 loss on $10,000 · 20.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Managing stock compensation helps control costs. It also helps make more money.
Worry ifManagement says stock compensation expense went down in Q2 results.
Less concerning ifStock compensation expense goes up or stays the same in Q2 results.
Why it matters: Higher expenses may hurt net income and profits, affecting how investors feel.
Worry ifStock-based compensation costs are over $6 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifStock-based compensation costs stay below $5 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Managing stock costs helps increase profits and reduce expenses.
Worry ifManagement says they will lower stock costs next quarter.
Less concerning ifStock-based compensation expenses go up or stay high next quarter.
Why it matters: Hitting the 18% Adjusted EBITDA goal is important for long-term profits and growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches 18% of revenue in any quarter before the end of 2027.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA has been below 16% of revenue for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Managing stock-based pay is important. Changes can affect costs and profits.
Watch forManagement reports lower stock-based pay costs in Q3.
Also watch forManagement reports higher stock-based pay costs in Q3.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help Ducommun. This would signal a better market environment.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth moves above 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth continues to slow below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth may show weaker momentum in aerospace and defense.
Worry ifIf Q3 revenue growth is less than 10% year over year, it shows a slowdown.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year, showing strong momentum.
Why it matters: What happens with the legal issue could affect investor trust and money reports.
Worry ifManagement solves the legal issue clearly with no need for more money reports.
Less concerning ifNew legal problems come up or more money reports are announced.
Why it matters: Growth in commercial aerospace helps Ducommun make more money.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue from commercial aerospace grows year over year by more than 10%.
Worry ifQ3 revenue from commercial aerospace declines or grows less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in the missile area helps Ducommun's defense business and plan.
Supportive ifMissile franchise revenue increases by more than 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifMissile franchise revenue decreases or grows less than 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Managing stock costs is key for cutting expenses and raising profits.
Worry ifStock costs in Q3 are under $5 million.
Less concerning ifStock costs in Q3 are over $6 million.