Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Delcath Systems, Inc. (DCTH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.49-2.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DCTH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain gross margins between 84% and 87% in FY26 | Gross margins are expected to stay high between 84% and 87%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 84% in FY26 | Gross margin: 89.75% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 84% to 87%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202689.753887 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2 Exhibit 99.1 About Delcath Systems, Inc ., HEPZATO KIT and CHEMOSAT Delcath Systems, Inc. is an interventional oncology company focused on the treatment of primary and metastatic liver cancers.” “Non-GAAP financial measures are not required to be uniformly applied, are not audited and should not be considered in isolation or as substitutes for results prepared in accordance with GAAP.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-growth healthcare business with improving recent financial performance, but it is still loss-making overall and carries elevated risk. The multi-year view is intact, with management on track against key growth and adjusted EBITDA goals.
DCTH is valued at a substantial premium to peers, and the valuation model has low confidence. The evidence indicates that expensive valuation is the main source of fragility, rather than a combination of expensive pricing, weak fundamentals, and turbulence; the expectations gap is 0.36.
Near term, revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA have strengthened, and management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $104 million to $108 million while reiterating positive adjusted EBITDA guidance. Gross margin reached 90% in 2026-Q2, above the updated guidance range, though the margin goal is marked mixed. A guidance cut is a key near-term risk, while weakening jobs data could add pressure through broader economic concerns.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on delivering the higher revenue guidance, sustaining margin performance, and maintaining positive adjusted EBITDA. Continued strength from healthcare bellwethers such as ABT, MDT, and SYK would support the sector backdrop; weaker jobs data or a guidance cut would challenge the setup.
For the next 1 to 3 years, DCTH’s long-term thesis is supported by strong recent execution, but the premium valuation and elevated risks make continued delivery important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve positive adjusted EBITDA in FY26 | The company is on track to improve profitability with a goal of positive adjusted EBITDA. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA remains negative through FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least $100M revenue in FY26 | A primary condition in Delcath Systems, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=100 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below $100M in FY26 | Revenue: $29.133M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=100 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202629,133,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document Exhibit 99.1 Delcath Systems Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results and Business Highlights Increases 2026 Revenue Guidance to a Range of $104M to $108M Conference Call Today at 8:30 a.m.” “2 Exhibit 99.1 About Delcath Systems, Inc ., HEPZATO KIT and CHEMOSAT Delcath Systems, Inc. is an interventional oncology company focused on the treatment of primary and metastatic liver cancers.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.53 → $-0.06 · observed estimates
$0.13B → $0.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.53 | $130,629,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.45 | $130,991,560 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.45 | $130,991,560 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.45 | $130,991,560 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.45 | $130,991,560 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.45 | $130,991,560 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.45 | $130,991,560 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.45 | $130,991,560 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.45 | $130,991,560 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.45 | $130,991,560 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.45 | $130,991,560 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.45 | $130,991,560 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.45 | $130,991,560 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.45 | $130,991,560 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.06 | $131,715,317 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.06 | $131,713,617 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.