Delcath Systems, Inc. (DCTH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$16.480.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DCTH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 84.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of — · Company calendar date is not available
DCTH — officer change
Dated 2026-05-14
The filing details an amendment to the equity incentive plan, not a management change.
Why it matters: Good news could increase HEPZATO KIT sales. It would also confirm its clinical benefits.
Supportive ifReports show a big rise in prescriptions for HEPZATO KIT after the CHOPIN trial.
Worry ifNo change in prescribing patterns after the CHOPIN trial results are published.
Why it matters: More treatment centers can drive higher HEPZATO usage and revenue growth.
Supportive ifTotal active treatment centers exceed 31 in Q3.
Worry ifTotal active treatment centers remain at 31 or decrease.
Why it matters: More new patients show that more people are using Delcath's therapies.
Supportive ifNew patient starts increase by 25% or more in the next quarter.
Worry ifNew patient starts decline or grow less than 10%, suggesting market challenges.
Why it matters: Margins below this level may show cost problems. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margins are over 86%. This shows good cost management.
Less concerning ifGross margins fall below 86%, suggesting rising costs or pricing pressures.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$203 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $413 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,374 loss on $10,000 · 33.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows Delcath is on track to achieve $100M in revenue for 2026.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue grows at least 20% year over year, reaching $30 million or more.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 20% year over year, indicating slower sales.
Why it matters: Positive adjusted EBITDA shows the company is running well. This can help gain investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 is positive. It is more than $3.4 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 is negative. This points to problems in operations.
Why it matters: If health care revenue growth picks up, it could boost Delcath's outlook.
Supportive ifHealth care revenue growth shows a return to above 10% year-over-year.
Worry ifRevenue growth is still below 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this revenue shows strong growth momentum for HEPZATO. It confirms the company's ability to achieve its 2026 revenue guidance.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue was $29.1 million or more. This shows continued growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue falls below $29.1 million, suggesting growth may be slowing.
Why it matters: This growth rate backs the company's revenue goals. It also shows strong market acceptance.
Supportive ifHEPZATO volume growth reported above 28% compared to the same quarter last year.
Worry ifVolume growth was below 28%. This suggests challenges in market adoption.
Why it matters: Keeping these margins shows good cost management. It also helps with profitability.
Supportive ifGross margins reported within the range of 86% to 89%, indicating solid cost control.
Worry ifGross margins fall below 86%, suggesting rising costs or pricing pressures.