Datadog (DDOG)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-07-07
$256.81+0.56%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 10 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $256.81. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $257, DDOG's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 26× p/s (7.6× the 3.4× p/s peer median, and 1.1× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~56% near-term growth vs our ~27% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $165 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts target $139–$305. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $225.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $130.50 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $129.80 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $91.11 | 38.0 | 2.40 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$139.00 – $305.00 (median $225.00) · 36 analysts · as of 2026-07-06
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 3597% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 20.4 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.39/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $56.65 |
| 19.3 |
| 2.94 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $68.33 | 38.0 | 1.80 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $33.85 | 3.4 | 10.07 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $25.75 | 14.3 | 1.80 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $190.13 | 105.6 | 1.80 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $73.93 | 38.0 | 1.95 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $232.04 | 38.0 | 6.11 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $86.15 | 19.3 | 4.47 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $103.92 | 38.0 | 2.74 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $60.45 | 3.4 | 17.98 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $39.16 | 14.3 | 2.74 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $289.17 | 105.6 | 2.74 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $432.75 | 38.0 | 11.40 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $113.93 | 19.3 | 5.92 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $137.44 | 38.0 | 3.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $79.95 | 3.4 | 23.78 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $51.80 | 14.3 | 3.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $382.43 | 105.6 | 3.62 | Analyst | medium |