Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Datadog (DDOG)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$174.60-7.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.96 → 2.94 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 27 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 26 to 27; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DDOG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sustain strong demand for cloud monitoring platform | The company has a strong platform for cloud analytics and monitoring. | Improving | evidence of sustained decline in customer growth or usage | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth business with robust earnings quality and a stable management team. The long-term thesis is intact, although the recent signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed and recent financial performance is neutral.
DDOG is expensive versus peers, and its valuation is stretched. The valuation model points to a modest expectations gap, but confidence in that estimate is low, so the degree of optimism already reflected in the valuation is uncertain.
Near-term results show continued growth: revenue reached $1.12 billion in 2026-Q2, up 36% year over year, and management raised its 2026 revenue and earnings guidance. The customer base with more than $100,000 in annual recurring revenue also grew, while a guidance cut on the next call remains a meaningful risk despite a low stated miss probability.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management delivering its raised 2026 goals without cutting guidance. Easier interest rates or steadier results from major technology peers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker peer results or a guidance cut would challenge the business setup.
For the next one to three years, DDOG has a credible growth thesis backed by recent execution, but its expensive valuation and elevated risk make guidance delivery central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Datadog's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.36. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $2.20 in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue to $4.30-$4.34 billion in 2026 | A primary condition in Datadog's published investment case. The stated target is ~$4.32 billion. | Broken | annual revenue falls below $4.0 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.197B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.32 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20261,197,090,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.85 → $2.94 · observed estimates
$5.27B → $5.49B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.85 | $5,270,382,297 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.88 | $5,282,386,710 | 45 / 45 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.88 | $5,282,386,710 | 45 / 45 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.88 | $5,282,386,710 | 45 / 45 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.88 | $5,282,386,710 | 45 / 45 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.89 | $5,286,957,190 | 45 / 45 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.89 | $5,286,957,190 | 45 / 45 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.85 | $5,280,761,366 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.85 | $5,280,761,366 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.85 | $5,280,761,366 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.88 | $5,278,617,580 | 44 / 44 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.88 | $5,278,617,580 | 44 / 44 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.85 | $5,280,760,312 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.85 | $5,280,760,312 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.86 | $5,313,001,651 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.86 | $5,313,001,651 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.95 | $5,426,538,070 | 46 / 45 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.95 | $5,426,538,070 | 46 / 45 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.96 | $5,467,465,520 | 46 / 45 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.86 | $5,313,001,651 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.97 | $5,465,858,450 | 46 / 45 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.86 | $5,313,001,651 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.86 | $5,313,001,651 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.86 | $5,313,001,651 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.86 | $5,313,001,651 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.86 | $5,313,001,651 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.86 | $5,313,001,651 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.96 | $5,465,287,728 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.96 | $5,465,287,728 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.96 | $5,465,288,237 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.96 | $5,465,288,237 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.96 | $5,465,288,237 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.96 | $5,465,287,137 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.96 | $5,465,287,137 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.96 | $5,465,287,137 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.96 | $5,465,287,137 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.96 | $5,465,288,018 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.96 | $5,470,364,484 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.96 | $5,470,364,484 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.96 | $5,470,364,484 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.96 | $5,470,364,484 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.96 | $5,470,364,484 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.96 | $5,470,364,484 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.96 | $5,470,364,484 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.96 | $5,470,364,484 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.96 | $5,470,364,484 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.96 | $5,470,364,484 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.96 | $5,470,364,484 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.96 | $5,470,364,484 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.96 | $5,470,364,484 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,042 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,042 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,042 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,042 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,042 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,042 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,042 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,042 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,042 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,042 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,130 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,130 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,130 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,130 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,130 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,130 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,130 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,130 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.96 | $5,475,397,130 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.96 | $5,475,392,465 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.96 | $5,475,392,474 | 25 / 34 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.96 | $5,475,392,474 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.96 | $5,475,392,474 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.96 | $5,475,392,474 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,828 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,828 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,828 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,828 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,372 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,372 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,373 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,827 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,827 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,827 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,318 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,318 | 26 / 34 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,318 | 26 / 35 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.96 | $5,476,835,318 | 26 / 35 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.98 | $5,489,413,205 | 26 / 35 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.98 | $5,489,413,205 | 26 / 35 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.98 | $5,489,413,205 | 26 / 35 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.98 | $5,489,413,317 | 26 / 35 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.97 | $5,485,745,049 | 26 / 35 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.97 | $5,485,745,049 | 26 / 35 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.97 | $5,485,745,049 | 26 / 35 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.97 | $5,485,745,049 | 26 / 35 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.97 | $5,485,745,049 | 27 / 35 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.97 | $5,485,745,051 | 27 / 35 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.97 | $5,485,745,051 | 27 / 35 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.97 | $5,485,745,176 | 27 / 35 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.97 | $5,485,745,176 | 27 / 35 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.97 | $5,485,745,176 | 27 / 35 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.96 | $5,488,017,901 | 27 / 35 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.94 | $5,490,575,694 | 27 / 35 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 43 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 11 recorded
8 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.