Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Dillard's Inc (DDS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
$607.62-5.96%
Close 2026-11-03 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
34.28 → 34.28 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DDS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities near $364 million in 2026-Q1 | Dillard's keeps strong operating income near $327 million in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $300 million next quarter | Cash from operations: $-37.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $360 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 4, 2026-37,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DDS is an operating-improvement and consumer-discretionary business, rather than a clear turnaround or deep-value case. Its long-term thesis is intact this month, with recent performance in the top half of its industry, though the risk label has risen to elevated.
Valuation is tagged as stretched, with DDS trading at a premium to peers and the expectations gap aligned with the valuation view. The evidence does not indicate a fragile setup, but it also offers little detail on exactly what earnings expectations the market assumes.
Recent results show retail gross margin rising from 38.1% in 2025-Q2 to 40.9% in 2026-Q3, while net income increased over that period. Management completed the W.D. Company acquisition and remains on track with operating income and capital expenditure priorities; near-term earnings miss risk is described as low, but past deep misses and falling earnings surprises warrant attention.
The multi-year case depends on management sustaining margin and income progress while integrating the completed acquisition and keeping capital spending near its stated plan. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength or weakness among sector bellwethers M and KSS could signal whether the consumer-discretionary backdrop is helping or fading.
For the next 1 to 3 years, DDS has an intact operating-improvement thesis, but elevated risk and stretched valuation make continued execution central to the case. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We ended the quarter with over $1.2 billion in cash and short-term investments after paying off $96 million in debt.”” “Actual results may differ significantly from these estimates as conditions and factors change - See “Forward-Looking Information.””
Maintain operating income near $327 million in 2026-Q1 | Dillard's keeps strong operating income near $327 million in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Operating income falls below $250 million next quarter | Operating income: $124.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $327 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 4, 2026124,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Limit revenue decline to no worse than -2% in next 12 months | A primary condition in Dillard's Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= -2% YoY. | Improving | Revenue declines more than 5% year over year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$34.52 → $34.28 · observed estimates
$6.69B → $6.67B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $34.07 | $6,689,198,810 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $34.07 | $6,689,198,810 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $34.07 | $6,689,198,810 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $34.07 | $6,689,198,810 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $34.07 | $6,689,198,810 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $34.07 | $6,679,527,630 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $34.07 | $6,679,527,630 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $34.52 | $6,689,146,809 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $34.28 | $6,666,798,097 | 2 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.