Dillard's Inc (DDS)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
$656.69+0.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryDepartment StoresSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DDS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is still in the top half of its industry but slipped notably this past month — worth watching.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 31.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DDS — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-06-04
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The information set forth under
Why it matters: Strong operating income is key for Dillard's financial health.
Supportive ifOperating income margin is above 10% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifOperating income margin falls below 8% in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: Strong operating income helps profits. It also boosts investor confidence. This shows good management.
Supportive ifOperating income keeps growing. It reached over $327 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income drops or does not grow compared to the last quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow could indicate challenges in maintaining financial health.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $350 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains above $350 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Maintaining strong operating income is key for Dillard's financial health. It shows cost management.
Supportive ifOperating income is up from the last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income is down from the last quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$158 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $443 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,707 loss on $10,000 · 27.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher capital spending may show plans for growth or poor resource management. This can impact cash flow.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $120 million.
Less concerning ifCapital spending is at or below $120 million.
Why it matters: Increasing cash flow is key for Dillard's financial health and future investments.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities goes up by more than 20% each year.
Worry ifCash from operating activities growth is less than 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows good financial management. It helps with growth and stability.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities is up from the last quarter.
Worry ifCash from operating activities is down from the last quarter.
Why it matters: The acquisition could boost Dillard's revenue. Monitoring its effect is key for growth.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue grows more than 5% after the acquisition.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue growth is less than 0% after the acquisition.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition could help Dillard's grow. It may also expand its market presence.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will confirm that W.D. Company is now part of Dillard's.
Worry ifThe acquisition might be delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Increasing cash flow shows better financial health and supports future investments. It reflects good cash management.
Supportive ifCash from operating activities is up. It is over $364 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash from operating activities falls or stays the same compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth would show a recovery in the consumer sector. It could help investor feelings.
Watch forDillard's reports positive revenue growth in the next earnings report on August 13, 2026.
Also watch forRevenue continues to decline year over year in the next earnings report.
Why it matters: A positive change in sector revenue growth could signal a recovery for Dillard's.
Watch forSector revenue growth turns positive for the first time in over a year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth remains negative or worsens.
Why it matters: Higher operating costs can hurt profits.
Worry ifOperating expenses are over 30% of sales in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses remain at or below 30% of sales in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in comparable store sales shows how well Dillard's is attracting customers. It can indicate ongoing strength in consumer demand.
Supportive ifQ3 comparable store sales growth exceeds 1%.
Worry ifQ3 comparable store sales growth is below 1%.
Why it matters: Completion of this acquisition is key for Dillard's growth strategy. It can enhance market position and revenue.
Supportive ifManagement says the acquisition is fully integrated. It is helping to boost sales.
Worry ifManagement changes the timeline for the acquisition. They might delay it.
Why it matters: Changes in retail gross margin can show how well Dillard's is managing costs and pricing. It affects profitability.
Watch forRetail gross margin exceeds 40.9%.
Also watch forRetail gross margin falls below 38.1%.