Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Diversified Energy Co. (DEC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.33-2.27%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.39 → 5.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DEC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Issue $850 million in asset-backed securities | The company issued $850 million in asset-backed securities to support growth. | Intact | issuance less than $850 million in 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DEC is an energy-sector growth and asset-optimization story, supported by Oklahoma development and acquisitions. The long-term thesis is on watch: management priorities are on track, but recent financial performance has lagged its industry cohort.
DEC is rated cheap versus peers, and the priced-in assessment is described as justified rather than fragile. The evidence does not specify the market’s exact earnings assumptions, so the expectations gap is hard to define more precisely.
Near-term, earnings execution is a concern: DEC missed its most recent quarter, and the risk of another miss is elevated. Across the next one to three years, production growth, the Birch acquisition, and asset-sale proceeds could support the business, while guidance and integration remain important tests.
The thesis depends on management sustaining Oklahoma development, integrating acquisitions, and continuing portfolio optimization. Near-term direction also hinges on the next guidance update and whether energy-sector leaders continue to report strong results and guidance.
Over the next one to three years, DEC has clear growth initiatives and a cheap-versus-peers valuation, but the watch status reflects uneven execution and meaningful near-term earnings risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| DEC aims to grow by completing the Camino asset acquisition. |
| Intact |
| acquisition not completed by end of 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain CAPEX at minimum $205 million for fiscal year | It plans to keep capital spending at $205 million this year. | Intact | CAPEX falls below $205 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.46 → $5.97 · observed estimates
$1.88B → $2.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.46 | $1,879,102,154 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.42 | $1,867,619,900 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.42 | $1,867,619,900 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.42 | $1,867,619,900 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.42 | $1,867,619,900 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.46 | $1,879,102,154 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.42 | $1,867,619,900 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.25 | $1,859,102,154 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.25 | $1,859,102,154 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.42 | $1,837,798,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.42 | $1,837,798,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.42 | $1,837,798,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.42 | $1,837,798,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.25 | $1,859,102,154 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.25 | $1,859,102,154 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.42 | $1,837,798,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.42 | $1,837,798,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.42 | $1,837,798,230 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $2.25 | $1,859,102,154 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.00 | $1,854,279,060 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.00 | $1,854,279,060 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.25 | $1,859,102,154 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.25 | $1,859,102,154 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.25 | $1,859,102,154 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.25 | $1,859,102,154 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.25 | $1,859,102,154 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.25 | $1,859,102,154 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.69 | $1,849,640,436 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.69 | $1,849,640,436 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.69 | $1,849,640,436 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.69 | $1,849,640,436 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.69 | $1,849,640,436 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.69 | $1,849,640,436 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.69 | $1,849,640,436 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.69 | $1,849,640,436 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.69 | $1,849,640,436 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.65 | $1,862,509,487 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.65 | $1,862,509,487 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.65 | $1,862,509,487 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.65 | $1,862,509,487 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.65 | $1,862,509,487 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.65 | $1,862,509,487 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.23 | $2,123,770,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.67 | $2,269,850,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.67 | $2,269,850,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.67 | $2,269,850,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.66 | $2,211,536,760 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.66 | $2,211,536,760 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.66 | $2,211,536,760 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.66 | $2,211,536,760 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.88 | $2,211,536,760 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.02 | $2,226,445,851 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.02 | $2,226,445,851 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.02 | $2,226,445,851 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.31 | $2,307,173,123 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.28 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.39 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.38 | $2,380,900,396 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.42 | $2,379,173,123 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.54 | $2,380,948,778 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.54 | $2,380,948,778 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.54 | $2,380,948,778 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.66 | $2,418,840,641 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.66 | $2,418,840,641 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.09 | $2,418,840,641 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.04 | $2,414,658,823 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.03 | $2,413,567,914 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.14 | $2,426,477,005 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.14 | $2,426,477,005 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.98 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.97 | $2,556,749,732 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.