Diversified Energy Co. (DEC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.33-2.27%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DEC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -66.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 23.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 89.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and missed its most recent quarter. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 16 industry peers
DEC — credit agreement
Dated 2026-11-02
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On October 27, 2026, DP RBL Co LLC (the “Borrower”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Diversified Energy Company (the “Company”), entered into the Fourth Amendment (the “Amendment”) to the Second Amended and Restated Revolving Credit Agreement, dated as of March 14, 2025 (as previously amended, the “Credit Agreement”), with the guarantors and lenders party thereto, KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank”), as existing administrative agent, Truist Bank (“…
Why it matters: DEC reported $115 million in adjusted free cash flow in Q2 and set a roughly $430 million full-year goal. Cash flow helps fund debt payments and shareholder returns.
Watch forDEC reports at least $430 million in 2026 adjusted free cash flow.
Also watch forDEC reports less than $430 million in 2026 adjusted free cash flow.
Why it matters: DEC plans about $1.5 billion of asset-backed debt for Birch. The deal may pressure debt levels if funding or cash flow falls short.
Watch forDEC confirms the planned financing is in place and reports leverage at or below its 2.5x target ceiling.
Also watch forDEC reports leverage above 2.5x, or says the planned financing is not in place.
Why it matters: DEC says asset sales can bring in cash and shift funds toward stronger assets. The 2026 outlook includes about $100 million from these sales.
Watch forDEC reports at least $100 million in 2026 asset-sale proceeds.
Also watch forDEC reports less than $100 million in 2026 asset-sale proceeds.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$117 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $419 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,033 loss on $10,000 · 30.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.