Diversified Energy Co. (DEC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.43-1.84%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DEC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -56.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 60.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DEC — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-05
of Form 8-K and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference into any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong cash flow from operations and good use of capital.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow reported at or above $430 million for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow drops below $400 million, showing weaker cash flow.
Why it matters: Completing this acquisition is key for Diversified Energy's growth strategy. It could boost their asset base and production.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will say the Camino asset deal is done.
Worry ifThere will be news about delays or problems with the Camino asset acquisition.
Why it matters: Growth in production signals success in the new development program. This can boost cash flow.
Supportive ifAverage production increases to 1,300 MMcfepd or higher by Q3 2026.
Worry ifAverage production drops below 1,200 MMcfepd in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Successful integration can increase production and cash flow. It shows the company's ability to grow.
Supportive ifCamino acquisition adds at least 100 MMcfepd of production by Q4 2026.
Worry ifIntegration problems can cause production to stop or drop from the Camino assets.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$173 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $419 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,033 loss on $10,000 · 30.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Lower free cash flow may show problems in making cash and using capital.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted free cash flow reported below $115M.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted free cash flow meets or exceeds $115M.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it signals a shift from a mature phase to growth. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth increases above 2% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains at or below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted EBITDA shows success in operations and cash flow. This can help gain investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is over $250 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $200 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This funding could improve the balance sheet. It may help future growth plans.
Supportive ifLook for better financial numbers or cash flow after the funding.
Worry ifThere is no clear improvement in financial numbers after the funding.
Why it matters: This report will show details about production, cash flow, and recent acquisitions.
Watch forEarnings report shows improved production and cash flow metrics compared to Q1.
Also watch forEarnings report shows falling production or cash flow.
Why it matters: Higher sales mean better use of assets. This also means more cash is available.
Supportive ifTotal asset sales exceed $150 million in 2026.
Worry ifAsset sales fall below $100 million in 2026.
Why it matters: Steady production growth shows that recent acquisitions are working well. It also shows strong operations.
Supportive ifQ3 average production was above 1,275 MMcfepd.
Worry ifQ3 average production was below 1,200 MMcfepd.
Why it matters: A low leverage ratio shows strong financial health. It also shows the ability to grow.
Supportive ifLeverage ratio reported below 2.5x in Q3.
Worry ifLeverage ratio reported above 2.75x in Q3.
Why it matters: Progress on this acquisition could affect DEC's growth plans and market position.
Watch forAn announcement will confirm a deal to acquire Birch Resources.
Also watch forAn announcement will say that talks about Birch Resources have ended.
Why it matters: Closing this $1.8 billion deal is important for Diversified's growth. It is expected to boost production by 35% and Adjusted EBITDA by 55%.
Supportive ifThe deal will close in Q4 2026 as planned. It meets all regulatory approvals.
Worry ifThe deal is delayed past Q4 2026 or does not meet regulatory approvals.
Why it matters: Growth from this program is crucial for maintaining cash flow and expanding operations. It shows how well Diversified can execute its growth strategy.
Supportive ifProduction from Oklahoma goes up by at least 10% each quarter.
Worry ifProduction from Oklahoma stays the same or goes down for two quarters.
Why it matters: Successful asset sales can improve cash flow and profits. They show how well Diversified manages its assets.
Supportive ifDiversified announced more asset sales. These sales will bring in over $100 million.
Worry ifNo new asset sales are announced for two consecutive quarters.
Why it matters: An earnings miss can affect how investors view the company's growth potential. It may lead to changes in stock price and market perception.
Worry ifInvestor sentiment drops, shown by a fall in stock price after the earnings miss.
Less concerning ifInvestor sentiment stays the same or gets better even after the earnings miss.