Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Journey Medical Corp. (DERM)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.30-9.09%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.68 → 0.44 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DERM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive cash from operating activities | Cash from operations turned positive at $2.9 million in Q1 2026. | Improving | Cash from operating activities turns negative over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $-1.734M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: > 0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 12, 2026-1,734,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business, not yet a profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact: recent financial performance is strong, though earnings quality remains loss-making and the evidence is only medium confidence.
DERM is described as cheap versus peers, and the priced-in signal is tagged as justified with no fragility gates triggered. The expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not explain its size or what specific market assumptions it reflects.
Near term, revenue growth has been strong, with Emrosi demand and broader payer access supporting recent results. Losses have narrowed and cash from operations improved, but profitability is not established; the next earnings report carries added risk because DERM is a smaller company in a high-miss-rate industry.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued Emrosi demand, payer access, and progress toward profitability. A guidance cut or worsening employment data could weigh on the business backdrop, while continued strength from healthcare peers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, DERM’s long-term thesis rests on turning strong revenue growth and improved cash generation into sustained profitability. The thesis remains intact, but execution and near-term reporting risk are high. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Journey Medical Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.07 in FY 2026. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $0.07 in FY 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue at or above $16 million in FY 2026 | Journey Medical aims to grow revenue above $16 million in 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $16 million in FY 2026 | Revenue: $18.51M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $16 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 202618,510,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.04 → $0.44 · observed estimates
$0.14B → $0.12B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.04 | $137,733,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.04 | $137,733,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.04 | $137,733,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.04 | $137,733,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.04 | $137,733,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.04 | $137,733,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.04 | $137,733,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.04 | $137,733,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.04 | $137,733,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.04 | $137,733,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.04 | $137,733,250 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.04 | $137,727,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.68 | $130,427,249 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.68 | $129,354,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.67 | $129,054,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.67 | $129,054,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.67 | $129,054,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.67 | $129,054,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.67 | $129,054,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.67 | $129,054,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.67 | $129,054,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.67 | $129,054,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.67 | $129,054,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.67 | $129,054,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.44 | $115,179,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.44 | $115,179,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.44 | $115,179,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.44 | $115,179,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.44 | $115,179,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.44 | $115,179,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.44 | $115,179,250 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.44 | $115,179,250 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.