Journey Medical Corp. (DERM)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.86-0.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DERM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 63.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 111.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 24 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DERM — earnings in line
Dated 2026-08-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 12, 2026, Journey Medical Corporation issued a press release to provide a corporate update and to announce its financial results for the three months ended June 30, 2026. A copy of such press release is being furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information, including Exhibit 99.1, in this Form 8-K is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, o…
Why it matters: Hitting or beating earnings goals can help rebuild investor trust after the recent miss.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings report shows results in line with or better than analyst expectations.
Worry ifQ2 earnings report shows another big miss.
Why it matters: Emrosi sales growth is important for revenue growth and making more money.
Supportive ifIf Emrosi revenues for Q3 are over $8.5 million, demand is still growing.
Worry ifIf Emrosi makes less than $8 million, demand may be getting weaker.
Why it matters: Total revenue growth shows how healthy the company is and its market position.
Supportive ifTotal revenues in Q3 are over $19 million, showing strong growth.
Worry ifTotal revenues fall below $18 million, which may mean growth issues.
Why it matters: A decline in cash could signal financial stress and impact growth plans.
Worry ifCash is over $25 million. This shows the company is financially stable.
Less concerning ifIf cash drops below $25 million, there may be worries about liquidity.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$204 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $524 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,259 loss on $10,000 · 52.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger financial health. This helps keep operations running.
Supportive ifPositive cash flow from operations reported for Q3.
Worry ifNegative cash flow from operations reported for Q3.
Why it matters: This growth shows that people want Emrosi. It also shows good cost control.
Supportive ifTotal revenues for Q3 2026 increase year over year by more than 20%.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 20% YoY.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong demand for Emrosi and supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifEmrosi total prescriptions reach or exceed 40,000 in the third quarter of 2026.
Worry ifEmrosi prescriptions fall below 36,000 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better profits. It also shows good cost control.
Supportive ifNet loss for Q3 2026 narrows to less than $0.3 million.
Worry ifNet loss for Q3 2026 is greater than $0.3 million.
Why it matters: A lower gross margin may mean higher costs or pricing issues. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 60% in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifGross margin stabilizes or increases above 61% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More access can lead to higher prescription volumes and revenue growth.
Supportive ifManagement has new contracts with GPOs and insurers. This gives Emrosi access to over 150 million commercial lives.
Worry ifNo new contracts or access expansions are announced in the next quarter.