DEFI DEVELOPMENT CORP (DFDV)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.17-15.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DFDV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 144.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 44.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 24 industry peers
DFDV — litigation filed
Dated 2026-11-02
Other Events. On November 2, 2026, DeFi Development Corp. (“DFDV” or the “Company”) announced that during the period from October 26, 2026 through October 30, 2026, DFDV grew its SOL and SOL Equivalents by 5,336. The Company reported the following information as of the dates indicated below: October 23, 2026 October 30, 2026 % Change SOL and SOL equivalents 2,595,612 2,600,948 NM NM-Amounts are not meaningful The Company expects SOL held in treasury to be deployed through its staking, validat…
Why it matters: The October estimates point to more SOL per share and a higher NAV per share. Final figures test whether those gains held up.
Supportive ifFinal Q3 results show double-digit SPS growth and more than 100% NAV per share growth from August 12.
Worry ifFinal Q3 results show SPS growth below 10% or NAV per share growth of 100% or less from August 12.
Why it matters: The rate rose from 13% to 14% starting November 1. Missed payments or a lower rate would test the plan to fund dividends from treasury income.
Worry ifA CHAD dividend notice declares and pays the 14% annual rate, with no missed payment during the next three months.
Less concerning ifA dividend is not declared or paid, or a filing sets the rate below 14%.
Why it matters: Buying SOL is a core company goal. The October 26 update showed a smaller weekly increase than earlier reports.
Supportive ifA weekly report shows SOL and equivalents rising by more than 5,346 from 2,595,612.
Worry ifA weekly report shows SOL and equivalents at or below the prior reported 2,595,612 total.
Why it matters: Management said Q3 would bring a lower cost base. The supplied figures do not yet show that step-down.
Supportive ifQ3 operating costs fell from Q2. Management confirms the planned cost drop took place.
Worry ifQ3 costs stay near or above Q2 levels, with no reported cost-base step-down.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$413 on $10,000 · ±4.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,094 loss on $10,000 · 10.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,196 loss on $10,000 · 72.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management says trading at $10 could help it raise more capital. That could fund more SOL purchases.
Supportive ifCHAD trades at or above $10, and a company filing reports a new CHAD sale through its sales program.
Worry ifCHAD trades below $10 and filings show no new shares sold through its sales program.
Why it matters: Management says it aims to cut debt and build cash. The final Q3 report can show whether those changes occurred.
Supportive ifThe November 17 report confirms lower borrowings in SOL and more cash than on August 12.
Worry ifThe report shows SOL-denominated borrowings did not fall, or cash did not rise from August 12.