Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
DRAGONFLY ENERGY HOLDINGS CORP (DFLI)
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.74-14.29%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DFLI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase gross profit above $1.7M | A supporting condition in DRAGONFLY ENERGY HOLDINGS CORP's published investment case. The stated target is >= 1.7 USD_MILLIONS. | Broken | Gross profit stays below $1.7M beyond 2026-Q1 | Gross profit: $4.343M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 1.7 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 20264,343,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and execution story, not yet a proven profitable business. The multi-year view is on watch: recent quality and momentum measures improved, but financial performance remains weak and management execution is described as volatile.
The valuation evidence describes DFLI as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 23% premium versus its peer measure and a negative expectations gap. The model has low confidence, so the cheap-versus-peers label is uncertain; the priced-in signal is tagged justified, with low fragility.
Near term, revenue increased from the first to the second quarter of 2026 and operating losses narrowed, but operating income remained negative. OEM sales rose and Stevens Transport deliveries began, while the Dakota Lithium integration has not yet shown a separate revenue contribution; management expects a meaningful contribution from Q4. The next-quarter miss risk is elevated, and a guidance cut would be a significant setback.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued sales growth, progress toward Adjusted EBITDA profitability at the stated annual sales run rate, and evidence that Dakota Lithium adds revenue. It also depends on whether guidance holds and whether industrial bellwethers continue to report strong results, since weaker results could remove a sector tailwind.
For a 1-to-3-year view, DFLI shows measurable operating progress, but losses, execution risk, recent negative events, and performance below its industry cohort keep the thesis fragile. The key test is whether revenue growth and integration progress translate into profitability without a guidance setback. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Improve operating income to about -$5.7M |
| Dragonfly aims to improve operating income from -$10.2M to -$5.7M. |
| Broken |
| Operating income remains below -$5.7M beyond 2026-Q1 |
Operating income: $-2.899M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= -5.7 USD_MILLIONS. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 14, 2026-2,899,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reach revenue near $13.2M next quarter | Revenue guidance is about $13.2M next quarter. | Intact | Revenue falls below $9.7M next quarter | Revenue: $13.159M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~13.2 USD_MILLIONS. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 14, 202613,159,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.30 → $-2.96 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.14 | $86,819,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.14 | $86,819,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.14 | $86,819,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.01 | $84,594,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.01 | $84,594,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.01 | $84,594,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.30 | $88,150,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.37 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-2.96 | $83,700,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.