Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$3.40 → $3.40 · observed estimates
Digi International Inc. (DGII)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$62.34-14.11%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.40 → 3.40 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DGII yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income improves to at least $17M | Profit rises with operating income up from $13M to $17M in one year. | Intact | Operating income falls below $17M in FY26 Q2 | Operating income: $22.895M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=17M USD operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 202622,895,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
$3.40 → $3.40 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DGII is a growth business with robust earnings quality and strong recent performance, rather than a turnaround. Its long-term thesis is intact, though the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable.
The valuation evidence is mixed: DGII is described as cheap versus peers, but also carries a premium to peers and is rated expensive overall. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market may already assume more than the evidence supports; confidence in this valuation model is high.
Near-term results have been strong: third-quarter revenue rose 29% year over year, ARR reached $191 million, and fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA growth guidance was raised to 35-36%. Net debt has also declined, although balancing debt reduction with acquisitions remains a mixed execution point; recent earnings surprises are trending down despite a low estimated miss risk.
The multi-year case hinges on continued organic and acquisition-led growth, progress toward the stated $200 million ARR and adjusted EBITDA priority, and disciplined balance-sheet management. Near term, a guidance cut after the recent raise could damage credibility, while steadier results across technology peers or lower interest rates could improve the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, DGII’s thesis rests on sustaining its strong operating progress, with valuation expectations and guidance credibility limiting the case. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| New 5G products and a business pivot support growth. |
| Intact |
| New 5G products fail to contribute meaningfully to revenue growth |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 14.7% next year | Digi International grows revenue about 25% year over year. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 14.7% next year | Revenue growth: 28.98% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=14.7% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202628.978552 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.60B → $0.60B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.40 | $604,450,000 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.