Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
Dine Brands Global, Inc. (DIN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.88-1.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.83 → 4.83 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DIN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA between $220 million and $230 million in 2026 | Profit is expected between $220 million and $230 million. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $220 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DIN is a restaurant operator with an expansion-led thesis, rather than a clearly established durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: execution is mixed, risks are elevated, and recent financial performance remains below its industry cohort.
The evidence describes DIN as cheap versus peers, while also showing that its valuation score recently declined. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment says fragility is low because weak execution is not paired with the full set of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.
Near term, the next guidance update matters because a cut would be a meaningful negative; the stated miss risk is low, but the company is smaller and has had a deep miss in its recent history. Over the multi-year view, dual-brand expansion is progressing, yet Q2 closures exceeded openings and first-half adjusted free cash flow fell sharply from the prior-year period as capital spending rose.
The thesis strengthens if dual-brand expansion continues and restaurant development improves without further pressure on cash generation. It weakens if guidance is cut or sector bellwethers begin missing results or guiding lower, reducing the sector support described in the evidence.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, DIN’s case rests on converting restaurant expansion into better financial performance while managing closures and capital needs. The evidence supports a cautious watch, not a settled thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| They keep capital spending stable at about $30 million. |
| Intact |
| Capital expenditures exceed $35 million or fall below $25 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $23.2M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $25 million to $35 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202623,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
IHOP net openings or closures within ±10 restaurants annually | A supporting condition in Dine Brands Global, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Between -10 and +10 net restaurants. | Intact | Net IHOP openings fall outside ±10 restaurants in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Annual revenue near $225 million in 2026 | Dine Brands plans steady revenue near $225 million in 2026. | Intact | Annual revenue falls below $220 million in FY26 | Revenue: $248.9M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$225 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026248,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.00 → $4.83 · observed estimates
$0.94B → $1.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.00 | $939,922,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.00 | $939,922,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.00 | $939,922,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.00 | $939,922,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.00 | $939,922,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.00 | $939,922,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.00 | $939,922,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.00 | $939,922,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.00 | $939,922,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.00 | $939,922,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.98 | $939,866,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.98 | $939,866,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.98 | $939,866,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.98 | $939,866,070 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.94 | $952,056,670 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.94 | $952,056,670 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.94 | $952,056,670 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.94 | $952,056,670 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.94 | $952,056,670 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.94 | $952,056,670 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.94 | $952,056,670 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.94 | $952,056,670 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.94 | $952,056,670 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.94 | $952,056,670 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.94 | $952,056,670 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.94 | $952,056,670 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.94 | $952,056,670 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.69 | $1,002,664,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.69 | $1,002,664,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.69 | $1,002,664,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.69 | $1,002,664,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.69 | $1,002,664,688 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.76 | $1,003,141,161 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,355 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.83 | $1,001,381,388 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.