Dine Brands Global, Inc. (DIN)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.68-1.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DIN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -39.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DIN — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-04
Other Events. On September 4, 2026, Dine Brands Global, Inc. (the “Corporation”) issued a press release announcing that the Board of Directors of the Corporation declared a third quarter 2026 cash dividend of $0.19 per share of common stock, payable on October 9, 2026, to the Corporation’s stockholders of record as of the close of business on September 16, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Active share buybacks show belief in the company's value. They help the stock price.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases reach $100 million by year-end.
Worry ifTotal share buybacks stay under $50 million by year-end.
Why it matters: A drop below $54.2 million shows weaker performance than expected.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is reported to be above $54.2 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 falls below $54.2 million.
Why it matters: IHOP's sales growth is key to Dine Brands' overall performance. Positive growth indicates strong demand.
Supportive ifIHOP's same-restaurant sales grew more than 1.5% from last year in Q3.
Worry ifIHOP's same-restaurant sales growth is below 0% in Q3.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can change company strategy and affect how well it does.
Supportive ifNew plans or strategies announced by the new Chief Commercial Officer.
Worry ifNo major changes or plans announced after the leadership change.
Why it matters: Expansion of dual brand restaurants is key to growth and market share.
Supportive ifManagement plans to open at least 10 new dual brand restaurants by the end of 2026.
Worry ifFewer than 10 new dual brand openings reported by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Buying back shares shows the company believes in its value and plans.
Supportive ifDine Brands repurchases at least $25 million of common stock in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases occur in Q3.
Why it matters: News on the buyback program shows management believes in the company's worth.
Supportive ifManagement shares good news on the $100 million share buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program may raise concerns.
Why it matters: Updates on IHOP's development plans will show growth potential and franchisee health.
Supportive ifManagement announces 10 or more net new IHOP openings in the next quarter.
Worry ifManagement reports 10 or more net fewer IHOP openings in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $446 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,468 loss on $10,000 · 34.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.