Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
HF Sinclair (DINO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$97.77-6.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.67 → 15.99 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DINO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete share repurchase agreement with REH Advisors | Recent share buybacks show management commitment to capital return. | Improving | buyback agreement not completed by end 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a cyclical energy business with a current favorable earnings signal, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, though execution quality is fragile and management has been volatile.
The evidence describes DINO as cheap versus peers, while also showing its valuation measure rose sharply after fresh earnings. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, so how much optimism is already reflected remains uncertain.
Recent financial performance is strong: refining income and several other segment results improved year over year, and the latest earnings event was positive. Management has delivered meaningful capital returns, but a possible guidance cut and recent earnings volatility remain near-term concerns; the supplied evidence does not establish whether safety and reliability have improved.
The multi-year view depends on whether recent operating strength can continue without a guidance cut. Strong results and higher guidance from sector peers could sustain the industry tailwind, while misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, DINO’s thesis has support from strong recent results and delivered capital returns, but fragile earnings quality, management volatility, and sector dependence limit confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| It maintains a steady quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share. |
| Intact |
| dividend cut below $0.50 per share next year |
Dividend per share: $0.53 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.50 per share quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 28, 20260.525 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves to at least $847 million in Q1 2026 | The company improved operating income sharply to $847 million in Q1 2026 from $81 million a year ago. | Intact | operating income falls below $600 million next year | Operating income: $2.672B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $847 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 28, 20262,672,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve at least 6% revenue growth | A primary condition in HF Sinclair's published investment case. The stated target is >= 6% YoY. | Intact | revenue growth falls below 4% YoY next year | Revenue growth: 49.73% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 6% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 28, 202649.731072 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$8.14 → $15.99 · observed estimates
$30.32B → $33.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $8.14 | $30,320,472,590 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $8.57 | $30,320,472,590 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $8.10 | $29,861,319,851 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $8.57 | $30,320,472,590 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $8.57 | $30,320,472,590 | 14 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $8.60 | $30,000,419,850 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.06 | $29,891,782,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.13 | $29,891,782,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.13 | $29,891,782,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $8.97 | $30,365,682,450 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $8.97 | $30,365,682,450 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $8.97 | $30,365,682,450 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $8.97 | $30,365,682,450 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.13 | $29,891,782,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.16 | $29,937,382,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.00 | $30,629,782,450 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.00 | $30,629,782,450 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.00 | $30,629,782,450 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $9.16 | $29,937,382,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.00 | $30,629,782,450 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.00 | $30,629,782,450 | 15 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.16 | $29,937,382,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.16 | $29,937,382,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.16 | $29,937,382,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.16 | $29,937,382,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.16 | $29,937,382,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.16 | $29,937,382,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.75 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.75 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.75 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.75 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.75 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.75 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.75 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.75 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.75 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.75 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.75 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.75 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.75 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.01 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.01 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.01 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.01 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.01 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.01 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.01 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.46 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.46 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.69 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.69 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.69 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.69 | $30,419,582,451 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.49 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.70 | $30,747,852,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.65 | $31,558,552,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.67 | $31,558,552,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.67 | $31,558,552,538 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $13.63 | $31,576,066,632 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $13.58 | $31,576,066,632 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $13.63 | $31,576,066,632 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $13.77 | $31,541,866,632 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $14.14 | $31,928,050,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $14.46 | $31,928,050,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $14.46 | $31,928,050,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $14.44 | $31,928,050,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $14.44 | $31,928,050,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $14.62 | $31,929,750,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $14.62 | $31,929,750,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $14.62 | $31,929,750,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $14.62 | $31,929,750,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $14.62 | $31,929,750,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $15.01 | $31,929,750,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $15.01 | $32,119,750,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $15.01 | $32,119,750,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $15.06 | $32,368,870,332 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $15.06 | $32,612,855,924 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $15.06 | $32,612,855,924 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $15.06 | $32,612,855,924 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $15.06 | $32,612,855,924 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $15.23 | $32,612,855,924 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $15.40 | $32,612,189,258 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $16.17 | $32,612,189,258 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $15.35 | $33,373,658,147 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $15.35 | $33,373,658,147 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $15.35 | $33,373,658,147 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $15.38 | $33,153,453,885 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $15.99 | $33,153,469,885 | 9 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
3 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.