HF Sinclair (DINO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$97.77-6.50%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DINO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -47.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
DINO — CEO transition
Dated 2026-10-28
CEO — Steve Ledbetter: The filing discloses the planned internal promotion of the COO to CEO, with the outgoing CEO transitioning to a non-executive role rather than leaving the company.
Why it matters: The board set a $0.525 quarterly dividend. Payment on December 2 depends on meeting the record-date terms.
Supportive ifThe company pays $0.525 per share on December 2 to holders recorded on November 12.
Worry ifThe company changes or cancels the $0.525 payment, or does not pay it on December 2.
Why it matters: Q3 refining results rose with tight fuel supply and high crack spreads. Weaker margins would show that lift did not last.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted refinery gross margin falls below $25 per produced barrel sold. It was $54.22 in Q3.
Less concerning ifQ4 adjusted refinery gross margin is $25 or more per produced barrel sold.
Why it matters: The disclosed internal promotion marks a leadership change. Watch for a clear handoff and steady execution of stated plans.
Watch forA company filing or release confirms Steve Ledbetter became CEO. It also confirms the outgoing CEO took a non-executive role.
Also watch forThe planned promotion is delayed or withdrawn, or a different person is named CEO.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$163 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $370 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,845 loss on $10,000 · 18.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.