HF Sinclair (DINO)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$105.41-0.70%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · DINO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
DINO — General Counsel transition
Dated 2026-07-28
Executive Vice President, General Counsel — Eric Nitcher: Mr. Nitcher is retiring from his executive officer role, with an expected successor to be named later.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good operations and market conditions.
Supportive ifNet income for HF Sinclair stockholders is over $900 million for Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet income falls below $700 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback show that management believes in the stock. This can help increase shareholder value.
Supportive ifThe company said it finished buying back shares as planned.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase plan.
Why it matters: Refining margins are very important for HF Sinclair's profits. Changes may show market shifts or problems.
Worry ifAdjusted refinery gross margin is over $10 per barrel. This shows strong profits.
Less concerning ifRefinery gross margin is under $8 per barrel. This shows possible profit problems.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show that the company is confident in its finances.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases exceed $200 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases fall below $150 million by the end of 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$194 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $325 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,755 loss on $10,000 · 17.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Starting the $1.5 billion buyback program shows strong capital return commitment and can support stock price.
Supportive ifThe company will start buying back shares in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced within the next quarter.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show management believes in the company's value. This also helps earnings per share.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $179 million in Q3.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $100 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A new $1.5 billion buyback program shows strong commitment and confidence.
Supportive ifHF Sinclair announces the start of the new $1.5 billion share repurchase program.
Worry ifNo announcement or execution of the new share repurchase program by the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Refining margins affect profits. Changes can show if operations are strong or weak.
Watch forRefining margins improve a lot. This shows strong demand and good pricing power.
Also watch forRefining margins go down. This suggests too much supply or weak demand.
Why it matters: Better operating income will show that HF Sinclair is managing costs and growing.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 2026 is over $847 million. This shows strong performance.
Worry ifOperating income is under $600 million. This points to problems in operations.
Why it matters: This shows strong performance in different business areas.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is over $1,404 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 falls below $1,200 million.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows good cost control and efficiency, which is key for growth.
Supportive ifQ2 results show operating income growth compared to Q1.
Worry ifQ2 results show a decline in operating income compared to Q1.
Why it matters: The separation could create value and help focus on main operations. Investors will see how this affects profits.
Supportive ifThe Lubricants & Specialties segment separation will be done in the next 12-18 months.
Worry ifThere are reports of delays or problems in the separation process.
Why it matters: Strong refining margins help profits and may lead to higher earnings for HF Sinclair.
Supportive ifRefining margins reported above $25 per barrel for Q3 2026.
Worry ifRefining margins drop below $20 per barrel for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback show that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifThere is news about completed share repurchases or a larger buyback amount.
Worry ifThere are no updates or the share repurchase agreement is canceled.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow and support for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend announced at $0.525 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend cut below $0.525 per share for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This shows strong operations and demand in the refining sector.
Supportive ifIncome before interest and taxes is over $877 million for Q3.
Worry ifRefining segment income falls below $800 million for Q3.
Why it matters: This report will show if HF Sinclair maintains its strong earnings trend or faces setbacks.
Watch forEarnings per share is over $3.56. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings per share is below $1.20. This shows a big drop in profits.