Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$62.49-4.54%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
8.67 → 10.95 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for DK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted EBITDA between $520M and $560M in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA guidance is set between $520M and $560M for 2026. | Intact | adjusted EBITDA falls below $520M in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
DK is a higher-risk, cyclical energy business with an operational-improvement story, rather than a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent operating results improved, but performance remains below its industry cohort and earnings quality is still loss-making.
The valuation evidence is mixed: DK is described as cheap versus peers, yet it also carries a 23% premium versus peers, and the model has low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment says current fragility reflects a turbulent sector rather than a broader combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence.
Near-term, refining performance has improved alongside the Enterprise Optimization Plan, and Delek Logistics’ adjusted EBITDA increased in both supplied year-over-year comparisons. Management execution is still rated volatile, and the evidence on refining and safe operations remains mixed despite better reported results. The next guidance update is a key near-term risk, although the stated miss probability is low.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued refinery improvement, safe and reliable operations, and further logistics growth. A guidance cut would weaken the setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could sustain a supportive sector backdrop. Misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.
Over the next one to three years, DK’s operational progress offers a credible improvement case, but losses, execution risk, and sector dependence leave the thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Delek US Holdings is improving cash flow with a target of $220M annual run-rate improvements. |
| Improving |
| annual run-rate cash flow improvements fall below $200M |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.255 per share | The company maintains a stable dividend of $0.255 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.255 | Dividend per share: $0.26 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.255 USD per share quarterly dividend. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 20260.255 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth above $2.65B quarterly | A primary condition in Delek US Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=2.65 USD_BILLIONS quarterly revenue. | Intact | quarterly revenue falls below $2.43B | Revenue: $4.087B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.65 USD_BILLIONS quarterly revenue. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 20264,087,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.05 → $10.95 · observed estimates
$11.96B → $13.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.05 | $11,959,511,300 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.05 | $12,134,345,150 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.05 | $12,134,345,150 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.05 | $12,134,345,150 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.05 | $12,134,345,150 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.21 | $12,134,345,150 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.21 | $12,134,345,150 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.21 | $12,134,345,150 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.94 | $11,893,913,892 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.21 | $12,134,345,150 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.94 | $11,893,913,892 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.21 | $12,134,345,150 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.21 | $12,134,345,150 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.21 | $12,134,345,150 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.20 | $11,761,429,508 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.65 | $12,016,581,250 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.65 | $12,016,581,250 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.20 | $11,761,429,508 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.68 | $12,412,903,900 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.71 | $12,414,903,900 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.20 | $11,761,429,508 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.20 | $11,761,429,508 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.20 | $11,761,429,508 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.20 | $11,761,429,508 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.20 | $11,761,429,508 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.20 | $11,761,429,508 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.20 | $11,761,429,508 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.26 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.26 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.26 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.26 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.26 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.60 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.60 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.60 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.60 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.60 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.60 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.60 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.60 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.74 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.74 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.74 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.74 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.74 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.74 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.74 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.74 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.74 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.06 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.54 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.54 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.54 | $12,266,595,508 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.91 | $12,426,408,420 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.57 | $12,579,858,420 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $8.33 | $12,579,858,420 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $8.67 | $12,693,445,920 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $8.67 | $12,693,445,920 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $8.67 | $12,693,445,920 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $8.67 | $12,693,445,920 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $8.67 | $12,693,445,920 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $8.67 | $12,693,445,920 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $8.24 | $12,618,174,152 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.24 | $12,658,507,485 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $8.24 | $12,658,507,485 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $8.69 | $12,658,507,485 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $8.69 | $12,658,507,485 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.71 | $12,659,063,040 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.71 | $12,659,063,040 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.02 | $12,659,063,040 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.42 | $12,834,530,485 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.42 | $12,834,530,485 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.03 | $12,902,530,485 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.03 | $12,902,530,485 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.27 | $12,902,530,485 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.85 | $13,073,752,707 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.90 | $13,187,974,929 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.90 | $13,187,974,929 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.90 | $13,187,974,929 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.90 | $13,187,974,929 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.90 | $13,187,974,929 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.90 | $13,187,974,929 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.95 | $13,187,974,929 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.95 | $13,187,974,929 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.95 | $13,187,974,929 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.95 | $13,187,974,929 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.95 | $13,187,974,929 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.95 | $13,187,974,929 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.95 | $13,187,974,929 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.95 | $13,187,974,929 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.